Results: Duke Energy Corporation Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

It's been a good week for Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE:DUK) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest second-quarter results, and the shares gained 3.9% to US$125. Duke Energy reported US$7.5b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.25 beat expectations, being 5.2% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Duke Energy's twelve analysts is for revenues of US$32.0b in 2025. This would reflect a satisfactory 3.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 4.0% to US$6.32. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$31.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.32 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Duke Energy

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$131, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Duke Energy, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$142 and the most bearish at US$121 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Duke Energy is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Duke Energy's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 7.6% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.2% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.8% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Duke Energy to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$131, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Duke Energy. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Duke Energy analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Duke Energy you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.