Avista Valuation

Is AVA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AVA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AVA ($38.13) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($45.41)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AVA is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AVA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

AVA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA10.7x
PEG Ratio2.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AVA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AVA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.6x
NWE NorthWestern Energy Group
15.7x4.7%US$3.3b
BKH Black Hills
14.8x8.2%US$4.1b
UTL Unitil
19.8x7.8%US$968.8m
NI NiSource
20.1x10.9%US$14.7b
AVA Avista
15.5x6.0%US$3.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AVA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x) compared to the peer average (17.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AVA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Integrated Utilities Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a11.1%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a11.1%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AVA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x) compared to the Global Integrated Utilities industry average (16.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AVA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AVA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.5x
Fair PE Ratio19.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AVA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.2x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AVA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$38.13
US$46.33
+21.5%
16.0%US$53.00US$36.00n/a3
Aug ’25US$39.62
US$40.00
+1.0%
17.8%US$50.00US$34.00n/a3
Jul ’25US$34.20
US$40.00
+17.0%
17.8%US$50.00US$34.00n/a3
Jun ’25US$36.98
US$40.00
+8.2%
17.8%US$50.00US$34.00n/a3
May ’25US$36.64
US$38.25
+4.4%
18.3%US$50.00US$32.00n/a4
Apr ’25US$34.70
US$37.00
+6.6%
18.3%US$50.00US$32.00n/a5
Mar ’25US$33.31
US$37.00
+11.1%
18.3%US$50.00US$32.00n/a5
Feb ’25US$34.50
US$37.00
+7.2%
18.3%US$50.00US$32.00n/a5
Jan ’25US$35.74
US$35.60
-0.4%
22.5%US$50.00US$26.00n/a5
Dec ’24US$34.91
US$35.80
+2.5%
22.2%US$50.00US$26.00n/a5
Nov ’24US$33.72
US$37.00
+9.7%
21.3%US$50.00US$26.00n/a5
Oct ’24US$32.37
US$38.40
+18.6%
16.3%US$50.00US$33.00n/a5
Sep ’24US$33.36
US$40.00
+19.9%
14.6%US$50.00US$33.00n/a5
Aug ’24US$37.51
US$38.67
+3.1%
15.8%US$50.00US$32.00US$39.626
Jul ’24US$39.27
US$39.33
+0.2%
14.5%US$50.00US$32.00US$34.206
Jun ’24US$40.76
US$39.33
-3.5%
14.5%US$50.00US$32.00US$36.986
May ’24US$44.12
US$39.33
-10.8%
14.5%US$50.00US$32.00US$36.646
Apr ’24US$42.45
US$38.83
-8.5%
15.0%US$50.00US$32.00US$34.706
Mar ’24US$40.59
US$38.83
-4.3%
15.0%US$50.00US$32.00US$33.316
Feb ’24US$41.10
US$39.17
-4.7%
15.1%US$50.00US$32.00US$34.506
Jan ’24US$44.34
US$39.00
-12.0%
16.2%US$50.00US$32.00US$35.746
Dec ’23US$41.41
US$38.33
-7.4%
15.6%US$50.00US$32.00US$34.916
Nov ’23US$37.66
US$39.50
+4.9%
17.2%US$51.00US$32.00US$33.726
Oct ’23US$37.05
US$42.80
+15.5%
12.8%US$51.00US$34.00US$32.375
Sep ’23US$41.26
US$42.80
+3.7%
12.8%US$51.00US$34.00US$33.365
Aug ’23US$42.70
US$42.60
-0.2%
13.1%US$51.00US$34.00US$37.515

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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