We Think MGE Energy (NASDAQ:MGEE) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 15, 2022
NasdaqGS:MGEE
Source: Shutterstock

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, MGE Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:MGEE) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

Check out our latest analysis for MGE Energy

What Is MGE Energy's Debt?

As you can see below, at the end of September 2021, MGE Energy had US$620.2m of debt, up from US$540.1m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$70.5m, its net debt is less, at about US$549.7m.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NasdaqGS:MGEE Debt to Equity History January 15th 2022

How Healthy Is MGE Energy's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that MGE Energy had liabilities of US$123.5m due within a year, and liabilities of US$1.22b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$70.5m and US$79.1m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$1.19b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

MGE Energy has a market capitalization of US$2.82b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

MGE Energy's debt is 2.7 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 5.8 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. MGE Energy grew its EBIT by 8.6% in the last year. That's far from incredible but it is a good thing, when it comes to paying off debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if MGE Energy can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, MGE Energy saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.

Our View

MGE Energy's struggle to convert EBIT to free cash flow had us second guessing its balance sheet strength, but the other data-points we considered were relatively redeeming. But on the bright side, its ability to to grow its EBIT isn't too shabby at all. We should also note that Electric Utilities industry companies like MGE Energy commonly do use debt without problems. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think MGE Energy's debt poses some risks to the business. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 1 warning sign with MGE Energy , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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