P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc. Just Missed Earnings; Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Investors in P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc. (NASDAQ:PTSI) had a good week, as its shares rose 9.7% to close at US$22.12 following the release of its second-quarter results. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$183m missing analyst predictions by 2.0%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$0.13 per share, a substantial decline on analyst expectations of a profit. Following the result, the analyst has updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analyst latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for P.A.M. Transportation Services

Following last week's earnings report, P.A.M. Transportation Services' solitary analyst are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$740.3m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analyst forecasting statutory losses of -US$0.03 per share in 2024. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analyst had been anticipated revenues of US$753.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.49 in 2024. While the analyst has made no real change to their revenue estimates, we can see that the consensus is now modelling a loss next year - a clear dip in sentiment compared to the previous outlook of a profit.

Although the analyst are now forecasting higher losses, the average price target rose 41% to 17, which could indicate that these losses are expected to be "one-off", or are not anticipated to have a longer-term impact on the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.8% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 13% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 7.8% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - P.A.M. Transportation Services is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest low-light for us was that the forecasts for P.A.M. Transportation Services dropped from profits to a loss next year. Fortunately, the analyst also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that P.A.M. Transportation Services' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analyst clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2025, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that P.A.M. Transportation Services is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is concerning...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com