Coherent Corp. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Coherent Corp. (NYSE:COHR) just released its first-quarter report and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 3.0% to hit US$1.6b. Coherent also reported a statutory profit of US$1.19, which was an impressive 318% above what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Coherent after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Coherent's 17 analysts is for revenues of US$6.55b in 2026. This would reflect a decent 8.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 389% to US$3.68. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$6.26b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.10 in 2026. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a great increase in earnings per share in particular.

Check out our latest analysis for Coherent

With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 27% to US$154per share. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Coherent, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$200 and the most bearish at US$110 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Coherent's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 10% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Coherent's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Coherent's earnings potential next year. There was also an upgrade to revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Coherent going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Coherent that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.