Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for OTCPK:TCII.F using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use
analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 5 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
OTCPK:TCII.F DCF 1st Stage: Next 5 year cash flow forecast
The current share price of
is above its future cash flow value.
Often investors are willing to pay a
for a company that has a high dividend or the potential for future growth.
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Tracsis's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Tracsis's earnings are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is not considered high growth.
Tracsis's revenue is expected to grow by 5.3% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Tracsis's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
5/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. John McArthur has been the Chief Executive Officer of Tracsis Plc since January 2004. Mr. McArthur was an Investment Professional at Axiomlab and joined it in December 2000. He served as Commercial Director of Tracsis Plc. He has worked as a Consultant for Arthur Andersen Business Consulting being predominantly involved with Customer Relationship Management and operationally focused projects and business solutions. During his last 2 years with Andersens, Mr. McArthur worked on a variety of primarily e-business and strategic initiatives, with a focus on investment analysis. He serves as an Executive Director of Tracsis Plc. He graduated from the University of Strathclyde after obtaining a First Class degree in Management Science.
John's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.
John's remuneration is lower than average for companies of similar size in United States of America.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The tenure for the Tracsis management team is about average.
CEO & Executive Director
CFO & Executive Director
Founder & Chief Technical Officer
Managing Director of Condition Monitoring
Member of Advisory Board & Divisional MD
Managing Director of Traffic & Data Services
Director of Software Operations & Planning Systems
Managing Director of Operations & Planning Systems
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The tenure for the Tracsis board of directors is about average.
Tracsis plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides software development and consultancy services for the rail industry. The company operates in two segments, Rail Technology and Services and Traffic & Data Services. It offers operations and planning systems, including rolling stock and crew planning and optimization tools; and information management and performance reporting software. The company also provides software solutions for driver and train crew diagramming, driver and train crew rostering, rolling stock planning, and performance and safety management, as well as offers strategic and operations, and software consultancy services. In addition, it offers traffic and data services, such as transport survey training and data collection, transport data consultancy, market research, and data capture services within traffic, rail, and pedestrian environments. Further, the company provides data acquisition, analysis, and remote condition monitoring hardware and software solutions for infrastructure maintainers; and traffic planning and management services comprising event car parking, event signage, access control, and admission services for the events industry. Additionally, it offers hosting solutions, software development, IT consultancy, business intelligence, process automation, mobile applications, and data processing services. The company serves transport operators, transport authorities, and infrastructure operators, as well as engineering and infrastructure companies in the United Kingdom, North America, Australia, and internationally. Tracsis plc was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Leeds, the United Kingdom.
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