Oracle Valuation

Is ORCL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • PM vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ORCL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ORCL ($108.16) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($184.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ORCL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ORCL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

ORCL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA18.7x
PEG Ratio2.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ORCL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ORCL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average53.1x
NOW ServiceNow
88.6x4.6%US$154.3b
PANW Palo Alto Networks
37.1x-13.6%US$84.5b
VMW VMware
43.1x14.2%US$61.5b
FTNT Fortinet
43.7x13.6%US$52.1b
ORCL Oracle
29.3x14.2%US$298.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ORCL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.3x) compared to the peer average (56.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ORCL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Software Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a17.0%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a17.0%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ORCL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.3x) compared to the US Software industry average (43.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ORCL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ORCL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio29.3x
Fair PE Ratio53.6x

PM vs Fair Ratio: ORCL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (53.6x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ORCL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$108.16
US$124.26
+14.9%
12.5%US$150.00US$83.00n/a30
Feb ’25US$115.53
US$124.26
+7.6%
12.5%US$150.00US$83.00n/a30
Jan ’25US$105.43
US$123.77
+17.4%
13.6%US$150.00US$83.00n/a29
Dec ’24US$117.16
US$127.58
+8.9%
13.9%US$150.00US$76.00n/a29
Nov ’24US$105.75
US$127.99
+21.0%
13.8%US$150.00US$76.00n/a30
Oct ’24US$105.92
US$129.15
+21.9%
12.7%US$150.00US$76.00n/a30
Sep ’24US$120.93
US$126.97
+5.0%
13.7%US$150.00US$76.00n/a29
Aug ’24US$117.91
US$126.28
+7.1%
13.6%US$150.00US$76.00n/a29
Jul ’24US$119.09
US$124.68
+4.7%
14.5%US$150.00US$76.00n/a28
Jun ’24US$105.99
US$97.41
-8.1%
14.1%US$120.00US$67.00n/a27
May ’24US$94.87
US$96.96
+2.2%
14.1%US$120.00US$67.00n/a27
Apr ’24US$92.92
US$96.37
+3.7%
13.7%US$120.00US$67.00n/a27
Mar ’24US$86.34
US$91.63
+6.1%
17.4%US$120.00US$55.00n/a28
Feb ’24US$90.05
US$91.63
+1.7%
17.4%US$120.00US$55.00US$115.5328
Jan ’24US$81.74
US$89.31
+9.3%
17.1%US$120.00US$55.00US$105.4326
Dec ’23US$84.11
US$85.62
+1.8%
19.0%US$120.00US$55.00US$117.1626
Nov ’23US$77.11
US$85.62
+11.0%
19.0%US$120.00US$55.00US$105.7526
Oct ’23US$61.07
US$87.71
+43.6%
15.6%US$115.00US$67.00US$105.9224
Sep ’23US$75.30
US$87.09
+15.7%
16.1%US$115.00US$67.00US$120.9323
Aug ’23US$77.44
US$86.32
+11.5%
15.8%US$115.00US$67.00US$117.9122
Jul ’23US$70.87
US$87.09
+22.9%
15.3%US$115.00US$67.00US$119.0923
Jun ’23US$71.60
US$90.59
+26.5%
16.1%US$126.00US$63.00US$105.9922
May ’23US$73.40
US$89.91
+22.5%
16.3%US$126.00US$63.00US$94.8723
Apr ’23US$82.01
US$89.91
+9.6%
16.3%US$126.00US$63.00US$92.9223
Mar ’23US$76.01
US$99.71
+31.2%
14.6%US$126.00US$63.00US$86.3422
Feb ’23US$81.04
US$99.71
+23.0%
14.6%US$126.00US$63.00US$90.0522

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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