SPS Commerce, Inc.

NasdaqGS:SPSC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$7.1b

SPS Commerce Valuation

Is SPSC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SPSC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SPSC ($188.32) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($168.89)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SPSC is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SPSC?

Key metric: As SPSC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SPSC. This is calculated by dividing SPSC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SPSC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio90.1x
EarningsUS$78.51m
Market CapUS$7.07b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SPSC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SPSC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average92.8x
OTEX Open Text
15.4x18.6%US$7.2b
CCCS CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings
162.1x50.8%US$7.5b
PEGA Pegasystems
66.5x23.9%US$8.2b
INFA Informatica
127.3x29.0%US$8.2b
SPSC SPS Commerce
90.1x12.0%US$7.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SPSC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (90.1x) compared to the peer average (92.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SPSC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Software Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
YXT YXT.COM Group Holding
2.1xn/aUS$138.77m
NISN Nisun International Enterprise Development Group
1.4xn/aUS$23.92m
NXTT Next Technology Holding
0.5xn/aUS$13.26m
ULY Urgent.ly
0.07x-13.0%US$6.79m
SPSC 90.1xIndustry Avg. 40.8xNo. of Companies12PE020406080100+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SPSC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (90.1x) compared to the US Software industry average (40.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SPSC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SPSC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio90.1x
Fair PE Ratio32.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SPSC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (90.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SPSC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$188.32
US$222.70
+18.3%
8.7%US$250.00US$188.00n/a10
Dec ’25US$193.07
US$222.70
+15.3%
8.7%US$250.00US$188.00n/a10
Nov ’25US$166.47
US$225.44
+35.4%
8.2%US$250.00US$188.00n/a9
Oct ’25US$191.57
US$225.22
+17.6%
7.6%US$245.00US$186.00n/a9
Sep ’25US$199.74
US$225.22
+12.8%
7.6%US$245.00US$186.00n/a9
Aug ’25US$208.96
US$225.22
+7.8%
7.6%US$245.00US$186.00n/a9
Jul ’25US$189.10
US$207.78
+9.9%
6.5%US$225.00US$178.00n/a9
Jun ’25US$188.09
US$207.78
+10.5%
6.5%US$225.00US$178.00n/a9
May ’25US$178.97
US$204.89
+14.5%
5.7%US$225.00US$178.00n/a9
Apr ’25US$184.24
US$204.00
+10.7%
6.6%US$220.00US$172.00n/a9
Mar ’25US$189.04
US$202.50
+7.1%
6.7%US$220.00US$172.00n/a8
Feb ’25US$181.74
US$194.00
+6.7%
7.1%US$215.00US$172.00n/a8
Jan ’25US$193.84
US$193.43
-0.2%
7.5%US$215.00US$172.00n/a7
Dec ’24US$177.75
US$192.86
+8.5%
8.0%US$215.00US$168.00US$193.077
Nov ’24US$161.10
US$187.86
+16.6%
9.5%US$215.00US$165.00US$166.477
Oct ’24US$170.61
US$189.71
+11.2%
9.7%US$215.00US$165.00US$191.577
Sep ’24US$181.04
US$189.71
+4.8%
9.7%US$215.00US$165.00US$199.747
Aug ’24US$175.16
US$189.71
+8.3%
9.7%US$215.00US$165.00US$208.967
Jul ’24US$192.06
US$168.71
-12.2%
9.6%US$205.00US$153.00US$189.107
Jun ’24US$158.47
US$162.29
+2.4%
4.2%US$174.00US$153.00US$188.097
May ’24US$148.41
US$162.29
+9.3%
4.2%US$174.00US$153.00US$178.977
Apr ’24US$152.30
US$158.86
+4.3%
3.4%US$165.00US$151.00US$184.247
Mar ’24US$149.30
US$157.43
+5.4%
3.1%US$165.00US$151.00US$189.047
Feb ’24US$137.90
US$152.43
+10.5%
2.8%US$160.00US$148.00US$181.747
Jan ’24US$128.43
US$152.43
+18.7%
2.8%US$160.00US$148.00US$193.847
Dec ’23US$145.83
US$152.43
+4.5%
2.8%US$160.00US$148.00US$177.757

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 04:26
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

SPS Commerce, Inc. is covered by 22 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Joseph VruwinkBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Jeffrey HoustonBarrington Research Associates, Inc.