Earnings Beat: Porch Group, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

The investors in Porch Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:PRCH) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 64% to US$3.62 in the week following its third-quarter results. Revenues of US$111m missed analyst estimates by a little bit, but statutory earnings beat expectations by an impressive , coming in at US$0.12 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Porch Group after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Porch Group

After the latest results, the consensus from Porch Group's six analysts is for revenues of US$422.5m in 2025, which would reflect a noticeable 6.5% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$0.77 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$510.7m and losses of US$0.68 per share in 2025. There's been a definite change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

The average price target was broadly unchanged at US$3.92, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Porch Group at US$7.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$1.50. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 5.3% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 40% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 12% per year. It's pretty clear that Porch Group's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$3.92, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Porch Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Porch Group (including 3 which make us uncomfortable) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.