Stock Analysis

Gen Digital's (NASDAQ:GEN) investors will be pleased with their favorable 40% return over the last year

Published
NasdaqGS:GEN

A diverse portfolio of stocks will always have winners and losers. But if you're going to beat the market overall, you need to have individual stocks that outperform. Gen Digital Inc. (NASDAQ:GEN) has done well over the last year, with the stock price up 38% beating the market return of 32% (not including dividends). However, the stock hasn't done so well in the longer term, with the stock only up 27% in three years.

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 1 year and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

See our latest analysis for Gen Digital

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the last year, Gen Digital actually saw its earnings per share drop 55%.

Given the share price gain, we doubt the market is measuring progress with EPS. Indeed, when EPS is declining but the share price is up, it often means the market is considering other factors.

We are skeptical of the suggestion that the 1.6% dividend yield would entice buyers to the stock. Revenue was pretty flat year on year, but maybe a closer look at the data can explain the market optimism.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

NasdaqGS:GEN Earnings and Revenue Growth December 3rd 2024

This free interactive report on Gen Digital's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Gen Digital's TSR for the last 1 year was 40%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Gen Digital shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 40% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 19% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Gen Digital (including 1 which can't be ignored) .

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.