Last week, you might have seen that Viant Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:DSP) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.3% to US$26.72 in the past week. The results don't look great, especially considering that the analysts had been forecasting a profit and Viant Technology delivered a statutory loss of US$0.27 per share. Revenues of US$40m did beat expectations by 3.4% though. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
After the latest results, the six analysts covering Viant Technology are now predicting revenues of US$205.7m in 2021. If met, this would reflect a major 23% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -US$0.82 per share in 2021. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$201.9m and losses of US$0.14 per share in 2021. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a very substantial increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
The consensus price target fell 25% to US$42.00per share, with the analysts clearly concerned by ballooning losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Viant Technology, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$62.00 and the most bearish at US$28.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Viant Technology's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 32% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2021 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.3% over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Viant Technology is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Viant Technology. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Viant Technology going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Viant Technology .
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