Assessing Applied Digital’s Valuation After Nvidia Exits Its APLD Stake

Why Nvidia’s Exit Matters for Applied Digital

Nvidia’s decision to sell its entire position in Applied Digital (APLD) pushed many investors to reassess the stock’s risk profile, even as the company reports strong high performance computing and AI data center momentum.

See our latest analysis for Applied Digital.

Applied Digital’s share price has pulled back recently, with a 7 day share price return of negative 8.64% and a 30 day share price return of negative 18.65%, even though the 90 day share price return is 22.93% and the 1 year total shareholder return is around 3x. This suggests strong longer term momentum despite short term volatility after Nvidia’s exit and the latest earnings beat.

If you are watching how AI data center names react to big shareholder moves, it could be worth scanning 34 AI infrastructure stocks as a way to spot other potential opportunities in this theme.

With APLD now trading around US$30.66 and a 1 year total return close to 3x, plus a sizeable gap to the average analyst price target, you have to ask: is there still upside here, or is the market already pricing in the growth story?

Most Popular Narrative: 26.2% Overvalued

Applied Digital’s last close at $30.66 sits above the most followed narrative fair value of $24.30, which frames the stock as pricing in a lot of optimism already.

Applied Digital (APLD) is currently one of the most aggressive builders in the AI infrastructure gold rush, trading at $29.04 as of late February 2026. The company has successfully pivoted from its origins in crypto-mining to become a provider of high-performance computing (HPC) "AI Factories." Their Polaris Forge campus in North Dakota is now described as a key site in the industry, with multi-billion-dollar, long-term lease agreements reported with hyperscalers and AI specialists like CoreWeave. These deals are presented as transformative, with projected lease revenues of $16 billion over the next 15 years, describing APLD as a significant landlord for current compute demand.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what sits behind that $24.30 fair value call? The narrative leans heavily on multi year lease cash flows, aggressive AI campus build outs, and future margin expansion assumptions that are anything but modest.

Result: Fair Value of $24.30 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, that story could change quickly if large capital expenditures, interest-sensitive debt, or any hiccups in power access slow the buildout and lease ramp.

Find out about the key risks to this Applied Digital narrative.

Next Steps

With sentiment clearly split between big risks and big potential, do not wait on others to decide for you. Check the 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs and weigh the trade off yourself.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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