A Fresh Look at Amplitude (AMPL) Valuation After AI Product Launches and GitHub Partnership

Amplitude (AMPL) caught investor attention recently after sharing its quarterly earnings results, updating full-year sales guidance, and rolling out several new AI-focused product initiatives. The company also announced a strategic partnership with GitHub.

See our latest analysis for Amplitude.

With several new AI features and its GitHub partnership fueling buzz, Amplitude’s shares have seen some volatility lately. This reflects changing investor sentiment as the company pursues long-term growth. While the recent 1-year total shareholder return sits at just over 1%, longer-term holders are still facing a sizable three-year total shareholder loss.

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But with shares trading well below analyst price targets and product innovation at the forefront, the real question is whether Amplitude is offering investors an attractive entry point or if future growth is already fully reflected in the stock price.

Most Popular Narrative: 36.1% Undervalued

Comparing Amplitude’s last close of $10.01 to the most popular narrative’s fair value of $15.67 reveals significant upside from current levels, underpinned by strategic expansion and AI-driven opportunities.

The continued investment and leadership in AI-driven analytics, supported by multiple strategic talent acquisitions and rapid product innovation (for example, AI agents, Guides, Surveys), position Amplitude to capitalize on the growing enterprise need for automated, actionable insights. This creates opportunities to increase ACV and command premium pricing, ultimately supporting margin expansion and stronger earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Wondering which key metrics power this bold narrative? The future growth outlook, evolving profit margins, and big bets on AI all factor into the fair value calculation. Find out exactly how they build their case by reading the full details.

Result: Fair Value of $15.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, challenges such as uncertain AI monetization and increased reliance on large enterprise clients could hinder Amplitude's growth prospects if not carefully managed.

Find out about the key risks to this Amplitude narrative.

Another View: What Does the Market Multiple Say?

Looking at the price-to-sales ratio, Amplitude trades at 4.1x, which is a bit higher than similar peers at 3.8x but lower than the US software industry average of 4.8x. The fair ratio is estimated around 4.2x, putting Amplitude close to where the market could eventually settle. Does this suggest risks for buyers, or are investors overlooking long-term upside?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Amplitude Narrative

If you have your own take on Amplitude's story or want to explore the underlying data yourself, you can craft your own narrative quickly and see how your view stacks up. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Amplitude research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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