Adobe Future Growth
Future criteria checks 2/6
Adobe is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 7.3% and 8.6% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 11% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 54.4% in 3 years.
Key information
7.3%
Earnings growth rate
10.98%
EPS growth rate
| Software earnings growth | 18.6% |
| Revenue growth rate | 8.6% |
| Future return on equity | 54.38% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 27 Apr 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Adobe: Cheap For All The Wrong Reasons
Apr 29
ADBE: Generative AI And Freemium Adoption Will Shape Future Earnings Power
Adobe's analyst price target has been adjusted slightly higher, with analysts pointing to updated expectations for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E in light of recent Q1 results, CEO transition news, and ongoing discussion around AI related opportunities and headwinds. Analyst Commentary Wall Street views on Adobe are mixed, with many firms trimming price targets and recalibrating ratings after the Q1 print and the CEO transition update.ADBE: Generative AI Monetization And Freemium User Growth Will Drive Future Revenue
Adobe's updated fair value estimate has been reduced from about $408 to roughly $328 as analysts factor in a lower future P/E, softer growth assumptions, and fresh uncertainty tied to the CEO transition and AI-driven shifts in its core businesses. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Adobe reflects a clear reset in expectations, with many firms cutting price targets and adjusting ratings to reflect CEO transition risk, AI related disruption, and softer growth metrics such as net new annual recurring revenue.Why Adobe's (NASDAQ:ADBE) Earnings Are Better Than They Seem
Apr 01
ADBE: CEO Transition Will Intensify AI Monetization Uncertainty And Multiple Compression
Analysts have reduced the Adobe price target to $220 from $271.93, reflecting softer revenue growth assumptions, a lower future P/E outlook, and heightened uncertainty around the CEO transition and the pace of AI driven monetization. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Adobe shows a clear tilt toward caution, with multiple price target cuts and rating downgrades clustering around the latest fiscal Q1 report and the CEO transition announcement.ADBE: AI Adoption And Generative Credits Will Drive Future Revenue Milestones
Our updated view trims Adobe's fair value estimate from $447.56 to $408.47, reflecting a lower assumed future P/E of about 21.2x. This is in line with a wave of reduced Street price targets around $290 to $375 and analyst concerns about competitive pressure, AI related execution risks, and more muted near term upside for the shares.
Adobe Inc. (ADBE): Defending the Creative Moat – Pre-Earnings Pulse in a Generative AI Era
Adobe (ADBE) enters March 2026 at a critical crossroads, currently trading at $262.41 as of the February 27 close. The stock has weathered a punishing 2025 and early 2026, down roughly 42% from its 52-week high, primarily due to "AI existentialism"—the market's fear that generative AI competitors might commoditize Adobe’s core Creative Cloud.
ADBE: AI Transition And Creative Ecosystem Partnerships Will Reshape Future Cash Flows
Our fair value estimate for Adobe has edged higher to $580.27 from $575.83 as analysts broadly reduce price targets and ratings in response to softer Digital Media growth expectations, questions about the durability of the competitive moat, and concerns that AI benefits may be slower to show up in revenue and margins than previously hoped. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Adobe has tilted more cautious, with several firms cutting ratings and price targets as they reassess Digital Media growth expectations, competition, and the timing of AI monetization.ADBE: AI Transition And Semrush Deal Will Reshape Future Cash Flows
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Adobe slightly, to about $576 per share. They cite a wave of recent downgrades and reduced price targets that reflect concerns about limited near term upside, competitive pressure in creative tools, and uncertainty over how much the current AI transition will benefit the business.ADBE: Future AI And Semrush Deal Will Reshape Cash Flow Profile
Analysts have reduced their Adobe fair value estimate by about US$7 to roughly US$578, citing a lower future P/E assumption and recent price target cuts that reflect concerns about near term growth momentum and competitive pressures. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Adobe has tilted more cautious, with several firms cutting ratings and price targets as they reassess expectations around AI driven growth, competitive intensity and near term execution.ADBE: Future AI And Marketing Deals Will Reshape Cash Flow Profile
Narrative Update on Adobe Analysts have revised their Adobe fair value estimate from $605.00 to about $585.69. This reflects slightly lower revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, a somewhat higher discount rate, and a partially offsetting increase in the future P/E input in their models.ADBE: Rising AI Costs Will Pressure Margins And Drive Multiple Compression
Analysts have reduced their fair value estimate for Adobe from $380.00 to about $271.93 per share, citing expectations for slightly slower revenue growth, lower long term profit margins, and a more conservative valuation multiple. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have become more vocal on Adobe, pointing to a combination of moderating growth expectations and tighter competitive dynamics across creative, document, and marketing workflows.
Adobe Stock: When Creativity Software Becomes an AI-Native Platform
Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) has spent decades defining how digital creativity is produced, edited, and distributed. From Photoshop to Premiere to Acrobat, its tools are embedded deeply into professional and consumer workflows.ADBE: AI Adoption And Acquisitions Will Drive Future Revenue Milestones
Analysts have nudged their average price target on Adobe slightly lower, trimming fair value by about $3 to approximately $448 as they factor in modestly slower revenue growth, slightly softer long term margins, and a marginally higher discount rate, despite continued momentum in AI driven products. Analyst Commentary Analysts remain divided on Adobe's outlook, with most acknowledging solid execution in the near term but reassessing the pace and durability of growth as the company leans further into AI infused offerings.ADBE: Ongoing AI Product Adoption Will Drive Early Revenue Milestones And Overcome Doubts
Adobe's analyst price target has been revised downward by approximately $6 to $450. Analysts are trimming future growth and profit expectations in light of continued AI-driven uncertainty and evolving competitive dynamics.
A Fair Price for a Great Business Facing Real Threats
TLDR; "HOLD" The story of Adobe today is that of a wide-moat champion that has been knocked from its pedestal. After a deep-dive analysis, our conclusion is that Adobe remains a world-class business, but the competitive landscape has fundamentally changed.Firefly And GenStudio Will Transform Marketing And Boost Future Engagement
Analysts have reduced Adobe’s price target to $456.18 due to persistent AI-related uncertainty, slowing revenue growth, and intensified competition, despite continued strong execution and early AI monetization progress. Analyst Commentary Ongoing AI uncertainty and heightened competitive pressures are weighing on long-term growth assumptions and sector valuation multiples, leading to widespread target cuts, despite continued Outperform/Overweight ratings from many bullish analysts.Firefly And GenStudio Will Transform Marketing And Boost Future Engagement
Analysts moderately lowered Adobe's price target to $475.45 amid mixed views—bulls cite resilient margins, disciplined execution, and AI potential, while bears flag Creative Cloud market share losses and AI competition—leaving fair value edging slightly lower. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight Adobe’s potential as a long-term AI winner, citing its commercially safe generative content approach, resilient top line, disciplined expense management, and industry-leading margins as supportive of attractive long-term value.We Think Adobe's (NASDAQ:ADBE) Robust Earnings Are Conservative
Jul 02
Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) After Its Second-Quarter Report
Jun 27We Like Adobe's (NASDAQ:ADBE) Returns And Here's How They're Trending
May 27Adobe: Near 50% Decline Creates Great Buying Opportunity (Rating Upgrade)
Apr 23OpenAI's Breakthrough Is Terrible For Adobe
Apr 09Firefly And GenStudio Will Empower Creative Evolution
AI product integration, like Firefly and GenStudio, aims to boost user engagement, supporting revenue growth and enhancing monetization.Generative AI, Firefly App And Express Will Expand Future Reach
AI integration and new app expansions boost user engagement and capture next-gen users, driving subscription sales and revenue growth.Adobe: Strong FCF Growth, But Growth Stabilization Needed
Mar 19Adobe Has Become A GARP Play (Rating Upgrade)
Mar 13Adobe Is A Compelling Buy
Mar 07Adobe: Buy This Overlooked Industry Leader At A Reasonable Price
Feb 27Adobe's AI Strategy Is Paying Off: Why This Stock Could Surge
Feb 12Adobe: You Don't Have To Be A GARP Acrobat To Buy This Stock
Jan 21Adobe: Strategic Transition To Subscription-Based Model Will Keep Leading Position
Jan 08Adobe: Our Top Idea For 2025 Now Trading At A 30% Discount To SaaS Peers
Dec 20Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/30/2028 | 31,078 | 9,151 | 11,510 | 11,895 | 17 |
| 11/30/2027 | 28,437 | 8,272 | 11,133 | 11,281 | 37 |
| 11/30/2026 | 26,093 | 7,388 | 10,482 | 10,455 | 37 |
| 2/27/2026 | 24,453 | 7,208 | 10,317 | 10,507 | N/A |
| 11/28/2025 | 23,769 | 7,130 | 9,852 | 10,031 | N/A |
| 8/29/2025 | 23,181 | 6,957 | 9,599 | 9,792 | N/A |
| 5/30/2025 | 22,601 | 6,869 | 9,437 | 9,615 | N/A |
| 2/28/2025 | 22,037 | 6,751 | 9,192 | 9,364 | N/A |
| 11/29/2024 | 21,505 | 5,560 | 7,873 | 8,056 | N/A |
| 8/30/2024 | 20,947 | 5,360 | 6,550 | 6,732 | N/A |
| 5/31/2024 | 20,429 | 5,079 | 6,368 | 6,584 | N/A |
| 3/1/2024 | 19,936 | 4,801 | 6,487 | 6,783 | N/A |
| 12/1/2023 | 19,409 | 5,428 | 6,942 | 7,302 | N/A |
| 9/1/2023 | 18,886 | 5,121 | 7,626 | 8,030 | N/A |
| 6/2/2023 | 18,429 | 4,854 | 7,423 | 7,861 | N/A |
| 3/3/2023 | 17,999 | 4,737 | 7,319 | 7,762 | N/A |
| 12/2/2022 | 17,606 | 4,756 | 7,396 | 7,838 | N/A |
| 9/2/2022 | 17,191 | 4,813 | 7,129 | 7,579 | N/A |
| 6/3/2022 | 16,693 | 4,889 | 6,859 | 7,279 | N/A |
| 3/4/2022 | 16,142 | 4,827 | 6,838 | 7,227 | N/A |
| 12/3/2021 | 15,785 | 4,822 | 6,882 | 7,230 | N/A |
| 9/3/2021 | 15,099 | 5,839 | 6,594 | 6,946 | N/A |
| 6/4/2021 | 14,389 | 5,582 | 6,595 | 6,978 | N/A |
| 3/5/2021 | 13,682 | 5,566 | 5,790 | 6,174 | N/A |
| 11/27/2020 | 12,868 | 5,260 | 5,308 | 5,727 | N/A |
| 8/28/2020 | 12,436 | 3,861 | 4,911 | 5,322 | N/A |
| 5/29/2020 | 12,045 | 3,699 | 4,434 | 4,808 | N/A |
| 2/28/2020 | 11,661 | 3,232 | 4,310 | 4,734 | N/A |
| 11/29/2019 | 11,171 | 2,951 | N/A | 4,422 | N/A |
| 8/30/2019 | 10,644 | 2,778 | N/A | 4,153 | N/A |
| 5/31/2019 | 10,101 | 2,652 | N/A | 4,186 | N/A |
| 3/1/2019 | 9,552 | 2,682 | N/A | 4,053 | N/A |
| 11/30/2018 | 9,030 | 2,591 | N/A | 4,029 | N/A |
| 8/31/2018 | 8,572 | 2,414 | N/A | 3,755 | N/A |
| 6/1/2018 | 8,122 | 2,167 | N/A | 3,504 | N/A |
| 3/2/2018 | 7,699 | 1,879 | N/A | 3,172 | N/A |
| 12/1/2017 | 7,302 | 1,694 | N/A | 2,913 | N/A |
| 9/1/2017 | 6,903 | 1,592 | N/A | 2,775 | N/A |
| 6/2/2017 | 6,526 | 1,443 | N/A | 2,589 | N/A |
| 3/3/2017 | 6,153 | 1,313 | N/A | 2,433 | N/A |
| 12/2/2016 | 5,854 | 1,169 | N/A | 2,200 | N/A |
| 9/2/2016 | 5,552 | 992 | N/A | 1,959 | N/A |
| 6/3/2016 | 5,306 | 896 | N/A | 1,801 | N/A |
| 3/4/2016 | 5,070 | 799 | N/A | 1,784 | N/A |
| 11/27/2015 | 4,796 | 630 | N/A | 1,470 | N/A |
| 8/28/2015 | 4,562 | 495 | N/A | 1,415 | N/A |
| 5/29/2015 | 4,350 | 365 | N/A | 1,323 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: ADBE's forecast earnings growth (7.3% per year) is above the savings rate (3.4%).
Earnings vs Market: ADBE's earnings (7.3% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.1% per year).
High Growth Earnings: ADBE's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: ADBE's revenue (8.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11% per year).
High Growth Revenue: ADBE's revenue (8.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: ADBE's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (54.4%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/04/29 05:55 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/04/29 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/02/27 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/11/28 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Adobe Inc. is covered by 64 analysts. 37 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Joseph Bonner | Argus Research Company |
| Robert Oliver | Baird |
| Saket Kalia | Barclays |