Stock Analysis

Estimating The Fair Value Of Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALGM)

NasdaqGS:ALGM
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Key Insights

  • The projected fair value for Allegro MicroSystems is US$34.60 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • With US$37.39 share price, Allegro MicroSystems appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
  • The US$55.33 analyst price target for ALGM is 60% more than our estimate of fair value

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALGM) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Allegro MicroSystems

Crunching The Numbers

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$227.0m US$281.8m US$341.9m US$396.0m US$441.9m US$475.9m US$504.5m US$529.1m US$550.5m US$569.6m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x3 Analyst x4 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 7.69% Est @ 6.02% Est @ 4.86% Est @ 4.05% Est @ 3.48%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.6% US$209 US$239 US$267 US$285 US$293 US$291 US$284 US$274 US$263 US$251

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$2.7b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.6%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$570m× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (8.6%– 2.2%) = US$9.1b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$9.1b÷ ( 1 + 8.6%)10= US$4.0b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$6.7b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$37.4, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
NasdaqGS:ALGM Discounted Cash Flow August 18th 2023

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Allegro MicroSystems as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.281. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Allegro MicroSystems

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Weakness
  • Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Opportunity
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the American market.
Threat
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Allegro MicroSystems, we've put together three important items you should explore:

  1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 1 warning sign for Allegro MicroSystems we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
  2. Future Earnings: How does ALGM's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Allegro MicroSystems is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.