Results: Axcelis Technologies, Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACLS) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$193m, some 4.2% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$0.88, 128% ahead of expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the consensus from Axcelis Technologies' seven analysts is for revenues of US$753.5m in 2025, which would reflect a concerning 21% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plummet 51% to US$2.70 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$777.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.25 in 2025. Although the analysts have lowered their revenue forecasts, they've also made a nice gain to their earnings per share estimates, which implies there's been something of an uptick in sentiment following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Axcelis Technologies

The consensus has made no major changes to the price target of US$65.25, suggesting the forecast improvement in earnings is expected to offset the decline in revenues next year. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Axcelis Technologies, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$75.00 and the most bearish at US$58.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Axcelis Technologies is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 27% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 20% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 16% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Axcelis Technologies is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Axcelis Technologies' earnings potential next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. With that said, earnings are more important to the long-term value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$65.25, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Axcelis Technologies. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Axcelis Technologies going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Axcelis Technologies .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.