NYSE:PRTY

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Party City Holdco Inc., through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, sources, and distributes party supplies in the United States and internationally.

Rewards

Trading at 96.1% below its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 161.58% per year

Risk Analysis

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

Highly volatile share price over past 3 months



Snowflake Analysis

Fair value with moderate growth potential.

Share Price & News

How has Party City Holdco's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: PRTY's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

1.6%

PRTY

1.9%

US Specialty Retail

1.1%

US Market


1 Year Return

-81.6%

PRTY

25.7%

US Specialty Retail

17.8%

US Market

Return vs Industry: PRTY underperformed the US Specialty Retail industry which returned 25.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: PRTY underperformed the US Market which returned 17.8% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

PRTYIndustryMarket
7 Day1.6%1.9%1.1%
30 Day-21.1%2.9%1.4%
90 Day-69.8%6.4%3.9%
1 Year-81.6%-81.6%27.7%25.7%20.3%17.8%
3 Year-88.0%-88.0%36.1%29.1%44.8%35.4%
5 Yearn/a51.5%38.7%71.3%52.4%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Party City Holdco's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Party City Holdco undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: PRTY ($1.87) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($48.42)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PRTY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: PRTY is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Specialty Retail industry average.

PE vs Market: PRTY is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate PRTY's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: PRTY is good value based on its PB Ratio (0.2x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (1.5x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Party City Holdco forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

161.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PRTY is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.7%).

Earnings vs Market: PRTY is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: PRTY's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: PRTY's revenue (0.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PRTY's revenue (0.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: PRTY's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.4%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Party City Holdco performed over the past 5 years?

14.0%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: PRTY is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: PRTY is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: PRTY is unprofitable, but has reduced losses over the past 5 years at a rate of 14% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare PRTY's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: PRTY is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Specialty Retail industry (3.8%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: PRTY has a negative Return on Equity (-21.17%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Party City Holdco's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: PRTY's short term assets ($1.2B) exceed its short term liabilities ($970.6M).

Long Term Liabilities: PRTY's short term assets ($1.2B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($2.5B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: PRTY's debt to equity ratio (259%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: PRTY's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 563.6% to 259% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: PRTY's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (0.3%).

Interest Coverage: PRTY is unprofitable, therefore interest payments are not well covered by earnings.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: PRTY has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: PRTY's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.6x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Party City Holdco's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

companyn/amarketbottom25%1.4%markettop25%3.7%industryaverage1.9%forecastin3Years0%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate PRTY's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate PRTY's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if PRTY's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if PRTY's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of PRTY's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Party City Holdco's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

0.8yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Jim Harrison (67yo)

5.9yrs

Tenure

US$2,544,578

Compensation

Mr. James M. Harrison, also known as Jim, has been the Chief Executive Officer of Party City Holdco Inc. since January 13, 2014. Mr. Harrison has been the Chief Operating Officer and President of Amscan Ho ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Jim's total compensation ($USD2.54M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD1.12M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Jim's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Management Age and Tenure

0.8yrs

Average Tenure

61yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: PRTY's management team is not considered experienced ( 0.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Age and Tenure

4.1yrs

Average Tenure

55yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: PRTY's board of directors are considered experienced (4.1 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: PRTY insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

BuyUS$59,71713 Nov 19
William Creekmuir
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Independent Director
Shares25,740
Max PriceUS$2.32
BuyUS$493,00012 Nov 19
Norman Matthews
EntityIndividual
Role
Chairman of the Board
Chairman of the Board
Shares212,500
Max PriceUS$2.32
BuyUS$232,00012 Nov 19
James Harrison
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
CEO & Director
Shares100,000
Max PriceUS$2.32
BuyUS$19,90126 Aug 19
Michael Harrison
EntityIndividual
Role
Senior Key Executive
Senior VP & GM of North American Consumer Products Group
Shares4,555
Max PriceUS$4.37
BuyUS$100,35916 Aug 19
Michael Correale
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Financial Officer
Interim CFO & Chief Accounting Officer
Shares24,300
Max PriceUS$4.13
BuyUS$566,25013 Aug 19
James Harrison
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
CEO & Director
Shares125,000
Max PriceUS$4.53
BuyUS$493,99717 Dec 18
James Harrison
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
CEO & Director
Shares51,458
Max PriceUS$9.60

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Management Team

  • Joseph Zepf

    Secretary

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Gerry Rittenberg (67yo)

    Consultant

    • Tenure: 0.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$2.74m
  • Jim Harrison (67yo)

    CEO & Director

    • Tenure: 5.9yrs
    • Compensation: US$2.54m
  • Mike Correale (61yo)

    Interim CFO & Chief Accounting Officer

    • Tenure: 0.8yrs
    • Compensation: US$522.14k
  • Brad Weston (54yo)

    President

    • Tenure: 0.4yrs
  • Marc Ehle

    Chief Operating Officer

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Michael Harrison (39yo)

    Senior VP & GM of North American Consumer Products Group

    • Tenure: 2.9yrs
    • Compensation: US$457.65k
  • Pat Duncan

    Senior VP of Marketing & Chief Digital Officer

    • Tenure: 0yrs

Board Members

  • Todd Abbrecht (50yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 7.4yrs
  • Morry Weiss (78yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 4.5yrs
    • Compensation: US$212.50k
  • John Frascotti (58yo)

    Director

    • Tenure: 0.3yrs
  • Norm Matthews (86yo)

    Chairman of the Board

    • Tenure: 1.5yrs
    • Compensation: US$299.81k
  • Bill Creekmuir (63yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 3.8yrs
    • Compensation: US$232.50k
  • Steven Collins (50yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 7.4yrs
    • Compensation: US$227.14k
  • Jim Harrison (67yo)

    CEO & Director

    • Tenure: 5.9yrs
    • Compensation: US$2.54m
  • Lisa Klinger (52yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 4.5yrs
    • Compensation: US$212.50k
  • Jim Conroy (49yo)

    Director

    • Tenure: 0.3yrs
  • Meka Millstone-Shroff (44yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 0.8yrs

Company Information

Party City Holdco Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Party City Holdco Inc.
  • Ticker: PRTY
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1947
  • Industry: Specialty Stores
  • Sector: Retail
  • Market Cap: US$176.643m
  • Shares outstanding: 94.46m
  • Website: https://www.partycity.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Party City Holdco Inc.
  • 80 Grasslands Road
  • Elmsford
  • New York
  • 10523
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
PRTYNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDApr 2015
5PYDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURApr 2015

Biography

Party City Holdco Inc., through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, sources, and distributes party supplies in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Retail and W ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2019/12/11 01:03
End of Day Share Price2019/12/10 00:00
Earnings2019/09/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.