American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.

NYSE:AEO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.7b

American Eagle Outfitters Valuation

Is AEO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • PM vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AEO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AEO ($23.92) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($26.88)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AEO is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AEO?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

AEO key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA10x
PEG Ratio1.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AEO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AEO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average63.3x
URBN Urban Outfitters
16.1x7.3%US$4.3b
ANF Abercrombie & Fitch
30.5x17.1%US$6.4b
FL Foot Locker
40.4x47.5%US$3.2b
GPS Gap
166x26.4%US$7.2b
AEO American Eagle Outfitters
21.6x14.5%US$4.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AEO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.6x) compared to the peer average (63.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AEO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a12.5%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a12.5%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AEO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.6x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (15.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AEO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AEO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio21.6x
Fair PE Ratio16.5x

PM vs Fair Ratio: AEO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.5x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AEO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$23.92
US$22.44
-6.2%
14.7%US$29.00US$16.00n/a12
Feb ’25US$20.26
US$21.25
+4.9%
17.2%US$27.00US$13.00n/a13
Jan ’25US$21.16
US$18.17
-14.1%
17.2%US$24.00US$13.00n/a12
Dec ’24US$19.51
US$17.83
-8.6%
18.1%US$24.00US$13.00n/a12
Nov ’24US$17.63
US$17.29
-1.9%
20.4%US$24.00US$12.50n/a12
Oct ’24US$16.61
US$17.29
+4.1%
20.4%US$24.00US$12.50n/a12
Sep ’24US$17.36
US$15.04
-13.4%
21.1%US$22.00US$10.50n/a12
Aug ’24US$14.65
US$12.82
-12.5%
21.5%US$18.00US$9.00n/a11
Jul ’24US$11.80
US$12.18
+3.2%
18.5%US$18.00US$9.00n/a11
Jun ’24US$10.29
US$12.18
+18.4%
18.5%US$18.00US$9.00n/a11
May ’24US$13.22
US$15.60
+18.0%
13.2%US$19.00US$12.00n/a10
Apr ’24US$13.44
US$15.60
+16.1%
13.2%US$19.00US$12.00n/a10
Mar ’24US$14.13
US$16.09
+13.9%
15.6%US$22.00US$12.00n/a11
Feb ’24US$16.51
US$16.27
-1.4%
15.7%US$22.00US$12.00US$20.2611
Jan ’24US$13.96
US$16.18
+15.9%
18.0%US$23.00US$12.00US$21.1611
Dec ’23US$15.36
US$16.18
+5.4%
18.0%US$23.00US$12.00US$19.5111
Nov ’23US$11.26
US$11.45
+1.7%
20.2%US$16.00US$8.00US$17.6311
Oct ’23US$9.73
US$11.45
+17.7%
20.2%US$16.00US$8.00US$16.6111
Sep ’23US$11.20
US$12.64
+12.8%
22.5%US$17.00US$8.00US$17.3611
Aug ’23US$12.11
US$14.17
+17.0%
33.3%US$27.00US$8.00US$14.6512
Jul ’23US$11.43
US$16.58
+45.1%
32.6%US$27.00US$8.00US$11.8012
Jun ’23US$12.10
US$17.17
+41.9%
32.2%US$27.00US$8.00US$10.2912
May ’23US$15.11
US$29.08
+92.5%
24.0%US$41.00US$19.00US$13.2212
Apr ’23US$16.05
US$29.33
+82.8%
24.0%US$41.00US$19.00US$13.4412
Mar ’23US$20.49
US$34.67
+69.2%
17.6%US$45.00US$26.00US$14.1312
Feb ’23US$23.25
US$36.33
+56.3%
17.2%US$46.00US$28.00US$16.5112

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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