American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.

NYSE:AEO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.2b

American Eagle Outfitters Valuation

Is AEO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AEO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AEO ($16.77) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($43.14)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AEO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AEO?

Key metric: As AEO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AEO. This is calculated by dividing AEO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AEO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.9x
EarningsUS$231.35m
Market CapUS$3.21b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AEO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AEO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30.6x
VSCO Victoria's Secret
21.7x3.6%US$3.5b
BKE Buckle
12.9x2.3%US$2.5b
RVLV Revolve Group
58.5x23.3%US$2.4b
BOOT Boot Barn Holdings
29.4x16.8%US$4.5b
AEO American Eagle Outfitters
13.9x19.1%US$3.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AEO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.9x) compared to the peer average (30.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AEO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TKLF Tokyo Lifestyle
2xn/aUS$13.93m
SSOK Sunstock
0.8xn/aUS$556.28k
MASN Maison Luxe
0.09xn/aUS$144.03k
CONN.Q Conn's
n/an/aUS$2.49k
AEO 13.9xIndustry Avg. 16.6xNo. of Companies10PE01224364860+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AEO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.9x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (16.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AEO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AEO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.9x
Fair PE Ratio17.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AEO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AEO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$16.77
US$21.30
+27.0%
19.2%US$32.00US$15.00n/a10
Dec ’25US$19.24
US$23.50
+22.1%
19.5%US$34.00US$17.00n/a10
Nov ’25US$19.46
US$24.30
+24.9%
18.0%US$34.00US$17.00n/a10
Oct ’25US$21.90
US$24.30
+11.0%
18.0%US$34.00US$17.00n/a10
Sep ’25US$20.58
US$24.40
+18.6%
17.3%US$34.00US$18.00n/a10
Aug ’25US$20.97
US$25.90
+23.5%
19.1%US$35.00US$18.00n/a10
Jul ’25US$19.40
US$25.64
+32.1%
18.7%US$35.00US$18.00n/a11
Jun ’25US$21.97
US$25.64
+16.7%
18.7%US$35.00US$18.00n/a11
May ’25US$23.70
US$25.53
+7.7%
17.9%US$35.00US$19.00n/a12
Apr ’25US$26.20
US$24.94
-4.8%
16.1%US$35.00US$19.00n/a12
Mar ’25US$24.14
US$23.03
-4.6%
15.0%US$29.00US$16.00n/a12
Feb ’25US$20.26
US$21.25
+4.9%
17.2%US$27.00US$13.00n/a13
Jan ’25US$21.16
US$18.17
-14.1%
17.2%US$24.00US$13.00n/a12
Dec ’24US$19.51
US$17.83
-8.6%
18.1%US$24.00US$13.00US$19.2412
Nov ’24US$17.63
US$17.29
-1.9%
20.4%US$24.00US$12.50US$19.4612
Oct ’24US$16.61
US$17.29
+4.1%
20.4%US$24.00US$12.50US$21.9012
Sep ’24US$17.36
US$15.04
-13.4%
21.1%US$22.00US$10.50US$20.5812
Aug ’24US$14.65
US$12.82
-12.5%
21.5%US$18.00US$9.00US$20.9711
Jul ’24US$11.80
US$12.18
+3.2%
18.5%US$18.00US$9.00US$19.4011
Jun ’24US$10.29
US$12.18
+18.4%
18.5%US$18.00US$9.00US$21.9711
May ’24US$13.22
US$15.64
+18.3%
12.6%US$19.00US$12.00US$23.7011
Apr ’24US$13.44
US$15.64
+16.3%
12.6%US$19.00US$12.00US$26.2011
Mar ’24US$14.13
US$16.09
+13.9%
15.6%US$22.00US$12.00US$24.1411
Feb ’24US$16.51
US$16.27
-1.4%
15.7%US$22.00US$12.00US$20.2611
Jan ’24US$13.96
US$16.18
+15.9%
18.0%US$23.00US$12.00US$21.1611
Dec ’23US$15.36
US$16.18
+5.4%
18.0%US$23.00US$12.00US$19.5111

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/23 08:34
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/23 00:00
Earnings2024/11/02
Annual Earnings2024/02/03

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. is covered by 51 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jeff BlackAvondale Partners
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Matthew McClintockBarclays