Amazon.com, Inc.

NasdaqGS:AMZN Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.7t

Amazon.com Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Amazon.com is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 6.3% and 12.6% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 5.3% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 16.6% in 3 years.

Key information

6.3%

Earnings growth rate

5.32%

EPS growth rate

Multiline Retail earnings growth9.8%
Revenue growth rate12.6%
Future return on equity16.56%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated21 Sep 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • 8h

Amazon: Prepare For A Margin Collapse At AWS

Summary Amazon.com, Inc. trades at a forward P/E of 19, with a $2.7T valuation driven by optimism around its cloud business. Despite diversified revenue streams, AMZN's operational profit is heavily reliant on AWS, which generates 60% of total profit from just 21% of revenue. An impending oversupply in cloud computing risks deflationary pricing, threatening AWS margins and, by extension, AMZN's premium valuation. I recommend selling or reducing AMZN exposure, as its business model faces structural risks from capital-intensive cloud expansion and potential margin compression. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Aug 15

AMZN: AI Cloud Backlog And Heavy Capex Are Expected To Improve Returns

Amazon.com’s fair value estimate has moved modestly higher to $327.00 from $319.69, reflecting analysts’ higher price targets that lean on stronger AI driven AWS profitability, a rising backlog tied to Bedrock and major AI partnerships, and expectations for faster payback on cloud and data center investments. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Amazon.com has been heavily focused on how AI driven demand in Amazon Web Services and rising cloud backlog are feeding into analysts’ valuation work.
New Narrative • Aug 05

Record Profit And Negative Free Cash Flow, Same Quarter

Handle the profit line carefully. Net income of $62.6 billion against $18.2 billion looks like a step change in the business.
Narrative Update • Jul 31

AMZN: AWS AI Backlog And Heavy Capex Are Expected To Drive Future Cash

Analysts nudged their fair value estimate for Amazon.com higher to $319.69 from $312.99, as rising Street price targets, supported by stronger views on AWS growth, an AI driven backlog, and return on invested capital, feed through into slightly higher revenue growth assumptions and a modestly lower future P/E. Analyst Commentary Street research around Amazon.com has turned increasingly focused on execution in Amazon Web Services and the implications of large AI and capex commitments for valuation.
Narrative Update • Jun 18

AMZN: AWS AI Backlog And $200b Infrastructure Spend Will Support Future Cash Generation

Analysts made only a slight upward adjustment to the Amazon.com fair value estimate, with the target rising by about $0.20. This reflects steady assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and a modestly lower discount rate supported by recent commentary on AWS AI backlog strength and long-term cloud and streaming partnerships.
Narrative Update • Jun 03

AMZN: AWS AI Backlog And Anthropic OpenAI Deals Will Support Future Cash Generation

Analysts have nudged the Amazon.com fair value estimate higher to about $313 per share from roughly $308, reflecting updated assumptions for slightly stronger long term revenue growth and margins, ongoing AWS AI backlog momentum, and a Street price target cluster moving toward the low to mid $300s, including a recent Truist increase to $320 tied to large Anthropic and OpenAI partnerships. Analyst Commentary Street research around Amazon.com has been highly active, with a wide cluster of price target revisions and list additions centering in the low to mid US$300s.
Narrative Update • May 12

Amazon's high growth, high tech segments propel its profits, while traditional segments plod along

As AWS and AI grow to be proportionally larger and larger parts of Amazon, its traditional retailing will make way for higher yielding platform based products
Narrative Update • May 04

AMZN: AWS AI Spending And OpenAI Alliance Will Support Future Cash Generation

The analyst fair value estimate for Amazon.com has shifted to $307.81 from $281.18, reflecting Street price target increases. These changes are linked to higher modeled revenue growth, slightly stronger profit margins, and updated P/E assumptions informed by recent research updates and rating changes on the stock.
Narrative Update • Apr 30

Amazon Q1 2026: Record Margins Meet Massive AI Ambitions

Amazon delivered a powerhouse Q1 2026 performance, reporting its highest-ever operating margin and a significant re-acceleration in its cloud business. However, the report also underscored the staggering price of staying competitive in the AI arms race, sparking a complex reaction in its valuation.
Narrative Update • Apr 20

AMZN: AWS AI Capex And OpenAI Alliance Will Drive Future Cash Flows

The Amazon.com analyst price target has edged slightly lower by about $0.10 to $281.18, as analysts refine their views on AWS growth, AI driven capital expenditures, and satellite connectivity efforts following a mix of recent price target increases and trims. Analyst Commentary Recent research around Amazon.com highlights a wide range of views as analysts react to fresh information on AWS, AI related capital spending, satellite connectivity, and retail positioning.
New Narrative • Apr 13

Amazon Could Reach $336–$380 Over the Next Five Years

Amazon has a credible path to the $336–$380 range over the next five years because its earnings are still growing, and the business is becoming more profitable through AWS, advertising, and automation. Simply Wall St currently shows Amazon trading below its modeled fair value, with earnings forecast to grow about 16% per year and revenue about 10% per year.
Narrative Update • Apr 06

AMZN: Cloud AI Capex And OpenAI Deal Will Support Future Cash Flows

Analysts have nudged their price target on Amazon.com slightly higher to align with a modestly higher fair value estimate of about $281. This reflects updated views on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E assumptions informed by recent research pointing to AWS momentum, rising ad spend expectations and ongoing AI related investment.
Narrative Update • Mar 23

AMZN: AI Cloud Commitments And Custom Chips Will Support Future Cash Flows

Narrative Update: Amazon.com (Price Target Revision) Analysts have made only a slight downward adjustment to Amazon.com's implied price target, trimming it by about $1 as they balance enthusiasm around AWS related AI partnerships, advertising survey strength, and new initiatives like Zoox against a recent wave of modest target cuts across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Amazon.com centers on how well the company can execute on large AI, cloud, advertising, logistics, and retail opportunities while managing capital intensity and competitive pressure.
Narrative Update • Mar 08

AMZN: AI Cloud Partnerships Will Support Future Cash Flow Resilience

Analysts have made a minor reduction to their Amazon.com price target, reflecting slightly higher discount rates. They continue to point to ongoing support from AWS-focused research, AI-related capital expenditure commentary, and views that Amazon's e-commerce and advertising businesses remain relatively well positioned against AI disintermediation risks.
New Narrative • Feb 22

AMZN Narrative

AMZN Narrative (Simply Wall St formatında) AMZN Current Setup Amazon (AMZN) trades around US$210 , while the modelled fair value is US$281.46 (roughly 25% undervalued ). This discount appears inconsistent with Amazon’s recent fundamental momentum: earnings +31.1% YoY , and consensus forecasts for ~16.2% earnings growth and ~10.3% revenue growth per year.
Narrative Update • Feb 21

AMZN: AI Infrastructure And Advertising Will Support Future Cash Flow Resilience

Analysts have reduced their average price targets on Amazon.com by roughly $10 to reflect slightly lower margin assumptions and updated price-to-earnings views, even as recent research points to healthy demand for AWS, advertising and capital expenditure driven growth initiatives. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Amazon.com highlights a mix of optimism around long term growth drivers and caution around valuation and margin assumptions.
Analysis Article • Feb 13

Amazon.com's (NASDAQ:AMZN) Earnings Are Weaker Than They Seem

Despite announcing strong earnings, Amazon.com, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:AMZN ) stock was sluggish. We did some digging and...
Narrative Update • Feb 07

AMZN: AI Infrastructure And Advertising Mix Will Support Future Cash Flow Durability

Analysts have trimmed their average price target for Amazon.com by about US$10 to US$285, largely reflecting updated assumptions for a slightly higher discount rate and lower future P/E, even as they factor in modestly higher revenue growth and profit margin expectations supported by recent research commentary. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Amazon.com shows a mixed but generally engaged view, with many firms revisiting their models, tweaking price targets and, in a few cases, ratings.
Narrative Update • Feb 06

FY2025

Updated with most recent annual financial statement.
Narrative Update • Jan 23

AMZN: AI Infrastructure Commitments Will Drive Future Cloud Cash Flow Durability

Analysts have made only a marginal upward adjustment to our fair value estimate for Amazon.com to US$295.61, reflecting slightly higher modeled revenue growth and profit margins. This is partly offset by a modestly lower future P/E multiple and discount rate in light of mixed but generally constructive price target updates that emphasize AWS and advertising demand alongside capital intensity concerns in AI infrastructure.
Narrative Update • Jan 08

AMZN: AI Infrastructure Deals And Advertising Scale Will Drive Future Upside

Narrative Update on Amazon.com Analysts have inched their blended price expectations for Amazon.com slightly lower, with the modeled fair value moving by about $0.02 to roughly $295.51 as they balance reduced price targets from firms like Cantor Fitzgerald and Wolfe Research against optimism around AI driven AWS deals, advertising growth, and ongoing capital investment in cloud infrastructure. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Amazon.com reflects a mix of enthusiasm around AI driven cloud demand, advertising and retail execution, alongside fresh questions about the returns on heavy capital spending and the sustainability of current valuations.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:AMZN - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20281,097,514147,22839,788316,95338
12/31/2027947,561115,389-5,879246,12458
12/31/2026828,212140,097-34,182193,41856
6/30/2026775,680135,281-11,625161,403N/A
3/31/2026742,77690,798-2,472148,531N/A
12/31/2025716,92477,6707,695139,514N/A
9/30/2025691,33076,48210,560130,691N/A
6/30/2025670,03870,62313,481121,137N/A
3/31/2025650,31365,94420,810113,903N/A
12/31/2024637,95959,24832,878115,877N/A
9/30/2024620,12849,86842,953112,706N/A
6/30/2024604,33444,41948,340107,952N/A
3/31/2024590,74037,68445,70099,147N/A
12/31/2023574,78530,42532,21784,946N/A
9/30/2023554,02820,07916,92171,654N/A
6/30/2023538,04613,0723,20961,841N/A
3/31/2023524,8974,294-8,57154,330N/A
12/31/2022513,983-2,722-16,89346,752N/A
9/30/2022502,19111,323-26,32339,665N/A
6/30/2022485,90211,607-29,78435,574N/A
3/31/2022477,74821,413-24,59839,324N/A
12/31/2021469,82233,364-14,72646,327N/A
9/30/2021457,96526,263-2,26954,672N/A
6/30/2021443,29829,4387,06759,323N/A
3/31/2021419,13026,90321,78667,213N/A
12/31/2020386,06421,33125,92466,064N/A
9/30/2020347,94517,37724,66355,292N/A
6/30/2020321,78213,18026,95751,220N/A
3/31/2020296,27410,562N/A39,732N/A
12/31/2019280,52211,588N/A38,514N/A
9/30/2019265,46911,347N/A35,332N/A
6/30/2019252,06312,096N/A36,028N/A
3/31/2019241,54512,005N/A34,360N/A
12/31/2018232,88710,073N/A30,723N/A
9/30/2018220,9578,903N/A26,604N/A
6/30/2018208,1256,275N/A21,793N/A
3/31/2018193,1943,938N/A18,193N/A
12/31/2017177,8663,033N/A18,365N/A
9/30/2017161,1541,925N/A16,995N/A
6/30/2017150,1241,922N/A17,877N/A
3/31/2017142,5732,582N/A17,606N/A
12/31/2016135,9872,371N/A17,203N/A
9/30/2016127,9932,104N/A15,096N/A
6/30/2016120,6371,931N/A13,047N/A
3/31/2016113,4171,166N/A11,466N/A
12/31/2015107,006596N/A12,039N/A
9/30/2015100,588328N/A9,823N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AMZN's forecast earnings growth (6.3% per year) is above the savings rate (3.7%).

Earnings vs Market: AMZN's earnings (6.3% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (17.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AMZN's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: AMZN's revenue (12.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (13.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AMZN's revenue (12.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AMZN's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (16.6%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/09/21 03:29
End of Day Share Price 2026/09/21 00:00
Earnings2026/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Amazon.com, Inc. is covered by 99 analysts. 58 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Kadambari DaptardarAccountability Research Corporation
Rocco StraussArete Research Services LLP
Richard KramerArete Research Services LLP