Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for OTCPK:ATRR.F using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity using Funds From Operations Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
Altarea is a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), we use funds from operations (FFO) or adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) instead of levered free cash flow for REITs. This excludes depreciation and borrowing. Ideally analysts estimates of AFFO are used, where these aren't available we use FFO.
OTCPK:ATRR.F DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Altarea's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Altarea's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Altarea's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Altarea's earnings are expected to grow by 15.1% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Altarea's revenue is expected to grow by 10.4% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Altarea's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
1/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Alain Taravella founded Altarea SCA in 1994 and serves as its Co-Manager. He was a Director of Boursorama SA since May 2, 2012 until October 28, 2015. He is a graduate of HEC. From 1975 to 1994, Mr. Taravella held various positions within the Pierre et Vacances Group, of which he was appointed Chief Executive Officer in 1985. Mr. Taravella is a Chevalier of the Légion d’Honneur.
- Other corporate offices in the Group:
• Member and Chairman of the Supervisory Board: Cogedim (SAS), Altarea France (SNC)
• Director: Alta Blue; Pitch Promotion (SAS)
• Representative of Altarea, Chair: Alta Blue; Alta Développement Italie; Alta Rungis ; Alta Valmy
• Representative of Alta Faubourg, Chair: Alta Saint Germain; Alta Reim
• Representative of Alta Penthièvre, Chair: Altacom
• Representative of Alta Blue, Chair: Aldeta
• Permanent Representative of Altarea, Director: Société d’Économie Mixte d’Aménagement et de gestion du Marché d’Intérêt National de Rungis – Semmaris
• Representative of Altarea, Co-Manager of foreign companies: Alta Spain Archibald BV; Alta Spain Castellana BV; Altalux Spain; Altalux Italy
- Corporate offices outside the Group:
- Chairman: Altafi 2; Altafi 3; Atlas (formerly Altafi 4); Altafi 5; AltaGroupe (formerly Altafinance 2); Altager (formerly Alta Pat 1); Alta Patrimoine
- Representative of Altafi 2, Manager: Altarea; Altareit
- Representative AltaGroupe (ex. Altafinance 2), Manager: SCI Sainte Anne.
- Representative of Alta Patrimoine, Manager: SNC Altarea Commerce; SNC ATI; SCI Matignon Toulon Grand Ciel
- Corporate offices expired within the past five years:
• Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Officer –
• Director: Boursorama; Picth Promotion (SA)
• Representative of Altarea, Chair: Alta Delcassé
• Representative of Alta Faubourg, Chair: Alta Reim
• Representative of Alta Penthièvre, Director: Altacom
• Representative of Altacom, Director: Rue du Commerce
• Chairman and/or Director of foreign companies: Altarag Srl;
Altarea Italia Srl; Altarea Inc.; Altarea España.
Alain's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year, both up more than 20%.
Alain's remuneration is lower than average for companies of similar size in United States of America.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure of the
management team in years:
The tenure for the Altarea management team is about average.
Founder & Co-Manager
Chief Financial Officer
Chief Executive Officer of Operation & Risk Management
Finance & Accounting Director
Group Technical Director
Analyst & Investor Relations
Human Resources Director
Chairman of the Management Board of Altarea Commerce
Chief Executive Officer of Retail & Leasing
Head of Institutional Relations
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The tenure for the Altarea board of directors is about average.
Altarea Cogedim is the leading property developer in France. As both a developer and an investor, the Group operates in the three main property markets (Retail, Residential and Business property), leading major mixed-use urban renewal projects in France. The Group has the required expertise in each sector to design, develop, market and manage made-to-measure property products. In Retail, Altarea Cogedim manages standing assets of €4.6 billion. Listed in Compartment A of Euronext Paris, Altarea has a market capitalisation of €3.0 billion at 31 March 2019.
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