NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc.

NYSE:NXRT Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.2b

NexPoint Residential Trust Valuation

Is NXRT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NXRT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NXRT ($46.14) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($58.41)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NXRT is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NXRT?

Key metric: As NXRT is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NXRT. This is calculated by dividing NXRT's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NXRT's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio25.3x
EarningsUS$46.39m
Market CapUS$1.18b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NXRT's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NXRT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average57.3x
CPT Camden Property Trust
37.8x-11.2%US$13.2b
UDR UDR
120.5x12.8%US$16.7b
MAA Mid-America Apartment Communities
35.9x0.5%US$19.1b
ESS Essex Property Trust
35.1x-8.3%US$20.0b
NXRT NexPoint Residential Trust
25.3x-68.9%US$1.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NXRT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.3x) compared to the peer average (57.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NXRT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Residential REITs Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NXRT 25.3xIndustry Avg. 26.3xNo. of Companies9PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NXRT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.3x) compared to the Global Residential REITs industry average (26.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NXRT's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NXRT PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio25.3x
Fair PE Ratio15x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NXRT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NXRT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$46.14
US$47.13
+2.1%
5.9%US$50.00US$42.00n/a8
Dec ’25US$47.07
US$47.13
+0.1%
5.9%US$50.00US$42.00n/a8
Nov ’25US$40.76
US$47.13
+15.6%
5.9%US$50.00US$42.00n/a8
Oct ’25US$43.34
US$47.29
+9.1%
8.7%US$55.00US$41.00n/a7
Sep ’25US$47.30
US$46.00
-2.7%
11.3%US$55.00US$38.00n/a7
Aug ’25US$44.35
US$42.43
-4.3%
15.3%US$55.00US$35.00n/a7
Jul ’25US$39.26
US$38.71
-1.4%
8.0%US$45.00US$34.00n/a7
Jun ’25US$36.67
US$37.43
+2.1%
12.3%US$45.00US$29.00n/a7
May ’25US$34.07
US$37.14
+9.0%
12.3%US$45.00US$29.00n/a7
Apr ’25US$31.57
US$37.14
+17.7%
11.1%US$45.00US$32.00n/a7
Mar ’25US$29.43
US$37.29
+26.7%
10.7%US$45.00US$32.00n/a7
Feb ’25US$31.12
US$39.67
+27.5%
18.3%US$55.00US$32.00n/a6
Jan ’25US$34.43
US$44.17
+28.3%
24.2%US$62.00US$32.00n/a6
Dec ’24US$32.23
US$44.17
+37.0%
25.0%US$62.00US$31.00US$47.076
Nov ’24US$26.91
US$47.33
+75.9%
26.2%US$62.00US$31.00US$40.766
Oct ’24US$32.18
US$49.33
+53.3%
20.3%US$62.00US$38.00US$43.346
Sep ’24US$37.29
US$50.00
+34.1%
18.7%US$62.00US$38.00US$47.306
Aug ’24US$40.63
US$52.67
+29.6%
12.8%US$62.00US$45.00US$44.356
Jul ’24US$45.48
US$56.00
+23.1%
19.6%US$70.00US$42.00US$39.266
Jun ’24US$40.66
US$54.71
+34.6%
19.4%US$70.00US$42.00US$36.677
May ’24US$42.36
US$55.43
+30.9%
17.9%US$70.00US$46.00US$34.077
Apr ’24US$43.67
US$55.43
+26.9%
17.9%US$70.00US$46.00US$31.577
Mar ’24US$46.80
US$55.86
+19.4%
17.7%US$70.00US$45.00US$29.437
Feb ’24US$50.63
US$54.86
+8.3%
17.9%US$70.00US$45.00US$31.127
Jan ’24US$43.52
US$60.29
+38.5%
17.6%US$72.00US$45.00US$34.437
Dec ’23US$47.90
US$60.43
+26.2%
17.4%US$72.00US$45.00US$32.237

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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