Stock Analysis

Even after rising 3.8% this past week, Global Net Lease (NYSE:GNL) shareholders are still down 36% over the past five years

NYSE:GNL
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For many, the main point of investing is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. So we wouldn't blame long term Global Net Lease, Inc. (NYSE:GNL) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 64% over a half decade. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 39%. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 22% in the last 90 days.

While the last five years has been tough for Global Net Lease shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.

See our latest analysis for Global Net Lease

Global Net Lease wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.

Over five years, Global Net Lease grew its revenue at 8.9% per year. That's a pretty good rate for a long time period. The share price, meanwhile, has fallen 10% compounded, over five years. It seems probably that the business has failed to live up to initial expectations. A pessimistic market can create opportunities.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:GNL Earnings and Revenue Growth April 23rd 2024

Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Global Net Lease's TSR for the last 5 years was -36%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Investors in Global Net Lease had a tough year, with a total loss of 28% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 21%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 6% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Global Net Lease has 3 warning signs (and 2 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Global Net Lease is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About NYSE:GNL

Global Net Lease

Global Net Lease, Inc. (NYSE: GNL) is a publicly traded real estate investment trust listed on the NYSE focused on acquiring a diversified global portfolio of commercial properties, with an emphasis on sale-leaseback transactions involving single tenant, mission critical income producing net-leased assets across the United States, Western and Northern Europe.

Good value with imperfect balance sheet.