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Tricon Residential Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Tricon Residential's revenue is forecast to decline at 31.9% per annum while its annual earnings are expected to grow at 4.7% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 26.1% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 5.4% in 3 years.

Key information

4.7%

Earnings growth rate

26.1%

EPS growth rate

Real Estate earnings growth	33.0%
Revenue growth rate	-31.9%
Future return on equity	5.4%
Analyst coverage	Low
Last updated	11 Mar 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Tricon Residential: Expected Growth Consistent With Housing Recovery Theme And Scale Expansion

May 25

Tricon Residential Is Cheap Relative To Its Growth

Feb 16

Tricon Residential: Between A Rock And A Hard Place

Nov 11

Tricon Residential to sell 20% equity interest in Sun Belt apartment portfolio

Oct 12

Tricon Capital goes ex-dividend tomorrow

Sep 28

Tricon Residential stock gains after nabbing Strong Buy from Raymond James

Aug 02

Tricon Residential: Opportunity Follows Fear

Jun 23

Zillow's Hottest Housing Markets 2022: Tricon Residential Is On Target

Mar 17

Tricon Residential CEO Gary Berman - Single Family Rentals An Exciting Asset Class (Video)

Oct 11

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:TCN - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2025	539	125	N/A	N/A	1
12/31/2024	495	90	N/A	158	2
12/31/2023	885	114	92	138	N/A
9/30/2023	856	206	127	172	N/A
6/30/2023	926	293	142	185	N/A
3/31/2023	890	652	213	247	N/A
12/31/2022	838	774	234	270	N/A
9/30/2022	793	829	214	249	N/A
6/30/2022	631	835	188	223	N/A
3/31/2022	581	563	110	148	N/A
12/31/2021	540	455	86	119	N/A
9/30/2021	501	421	107	135	N/A
6/30/2021	476	300	94	117	N/A
3/31/2021	450	198	110	121	N/A
12/31/2020	356	110	130	143	N/A
9/30/2020	245	80	159	162	N/A
6/30/2020	151	59	75	84	N/A
3/31/2020	61	41	32	39	N/A
12/31/2019	50	112	-45	-44	N/A
9/30/2019	95	111	-88	-79	N/A
6/30/2019	149	113	-60	-60	N/A
3/31/2019	171	121	-13	-8	N/A
12/31/2018	276	193	-22	-17	N/A
9/30/2018	276	174	-56	-51	N/A
6/30/2018	280	196	-44	-39	N/A
3/31/2018	251	153	-338	-338	N/A
12/31/2017	169	63	-321	-321	N/A
9/30/2017	131	47	N/A	-225	N/A
6/30/2017	97	15	N/A	-267	N/A
3/31/2017	111	52	N/A	-76	N/A
12/31/2016	111	59	N/A	-61	N/A
9/30/2016	116	80	N/A	-176	N/A
6/30/2016	108	89	N/A	-163	N/A
3/31/2016	100	82	N/A	-81	N/A
12/31/2015	102	58	N/A	-67	N/A
9/30/2015	152	73	N/A	-30	N/A
6/30/2015	174	79	N/A	14	N/A
3/31/2015	159	60	N/A	-2	N/A
12/31/2014	169	99	N/A	-9	N/A
9/30/2014	131	70	N/A	11	N/A
6/30/2014	101	30	N/A	-215	N/A
3/31/2014	112	53	N/A	-264	N/A
12/31/2013	86	34	N/A	-298	N/A
9/30/2013	54	17	N/A	-370	N/A
6/30/2013	38	15	N/A	-164	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TCN's forecast earnings growth (4.7% per year) is above the savings rate (2.4%).

Earnings vs Market: TCN's earnings (4.7% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (14.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TCN's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: TCN's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-31.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TCN's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-31.9% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TCN's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (5.4%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/05/01 09:21
End of Day Share Price	2024/05/01 00:00
Earnings	2023/12/31
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Tricon Residential Inc. is covered by 18 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Wojtek Nowak	ATB Capital Markets
Stephen MacLeod	BMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Mark Rothschild	Canaccord Genuity

This company listing is no longer active

Tricon Residential Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Price target increased by 7.8% to US$10.78

Price target decreased to US$12.34

Price target decreased to US$12.59

Price target decreased to US$13.28

Recent updates

Tricon Residential Files Form 15

Common Shares of Tricon Residential to be De-Listed from the New York Stock Exchange and Toronto Stock Exchange on May 2, 2024

Tricon Residential Inc.(TSX:TCN) dropped from S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index

Tricon Residential's Common Shares to be Delisted from the New York Stock Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange

Tricon Residential's Common Shares to be Delisted from the New York Stock Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange

Independent Director recently sold US$3.9m worth of stock

Full year 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind

New minor risk - Shareholder dilution

Tricon Residential Inc. to Report Q4, 2023 Results on Feb 27, 2024

Tricon Residential: Blackstone's Accretive Acquisition

Price target increased by 7.8% to US$10.78

Blackstone Real Estate Partners X L.P., a fund managed by Blackstone Real Estate Advisors L.P. entered into an arrangement agreement to acquire remaining 89% stake in Tricon Residential Inc. (TSX:TCN) for $2.7 billion.

Blackstone Real Estate Partners X L.P., a fund managed by Blackstone Real Estate Advisors L.P. entered into an arrangement agreement to acquire remaining 89% stake in Tricon Residential Inc. (TSX:TCN) for $2.7 billion.

Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 21%

Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, Inc. and Blackstone Real Estate Partners X L.P., a fund managed by Blackstone Real Estate Advisors L.P. entered into an arrangement agreement to acquire Tricon Residential Inc. (TSX:TCN) for $3.5 billion.

President recently bought US$381k worth of stock

Upcoming dividend of US$0.058 per share at 2.6% yield

Tricon Residential: Attractive Set-Up Going Into 2024

Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Tricon Residential Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend, Payable on or After January 15, 2024

Tricon Residential Inc. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 08, 2023

Insufficient new directors

Upcoming dividend of US$0.058 per share at 2.8% yield

Tricon Residential's Performance Revenue Is Not Priced Into The Stock

New minor risk - Profit margin trend

Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.17 (vs US$1.47 in 2Q 2022)

Tricon Residential Inc. Declares Dividend, Payable on or After October 15, 2023

Tricon Residential Inc. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Aug 09, 2023

Tricon Residential Offers A Lot Of Value At Current Prices

Upcoming dividend of US$0.058 per share at 2.7% yield

Tricon Residential: Expected Growth Consistent With Housing Recovery Theme And Scale Expansion

First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: US$0.098 (vs US$0.59 in 1Q 2022)

Tricon Residential Inc. Declares Dividend, Payable on or After July 15, 2023

Upcoming dividend of US$0.058 per share at 3.1% yield

Full year 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind

Tricon Residential Is Cheap Relative To Its Growth

Tricon Residential Inc. to Report Q4, 2022 Results on Mar 02, 2023

Upcoming dividend of US$0.058 per share

Executive VP & CFO recently bought US$152k worth of stock

Price target decreased to US$12.34

Tricon Residential: Between A Rock And A Hard Place

Price target decreased to US$12.59

Tricon Residential Inc. Declares Dividend, Payable on or After January 15, 2023

Price target decreased to US$13.28

A vertically integrated residential real estate investment and property management company completed the acquisition of 20% stake in Portfolio of 23 Sun Belt Apartment Buildings.

A vertically integrated residential real estate investment and property management company completed the acquisition of 20% stake in Portfolio of 23 Sun Belt Apartment Buildings.

A vertically integrated residential real estate investment and property management company entered into an agreement to acquire 20% stake in portfolio of 23 Sun Belt apartment buildings from Tricon Residential Inc. (TSX:TCN) for approximately CAD 320 million.

Tricon Residential to sell 20% equity interest in Sun Belt apartment portfolio

Tricon Residential Inc. to Report Q3, 2022 Results on Nov 09, 2022

Tricon Capital goes ex-dividend tomorrow

Upcoming dividend of US$0.058 per share

Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop

Second quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Tricon Residential Inc. Declares Dividend, Payable on or After October 15, 2022

Tricon Residential stock gains after nabbing Strong Buy from Raymond James

Tricon Residential Inc. to Report Q2, 2022 Results on Aug 11, 2022

Tricon Residential: Opportunity Follows Fear

Upcoming dividend of US$0.058 per share

Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week

Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop

Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop

First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Tricon Residential Inc. Declares Dividend, Payable on or After July 15, 2022

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

Tricon Residential Inc. to Report Q1, 2022 Results on May 11, 2022

Upcoming dividend of US$0.058 per share

Independent Director recently sold US$180k worth of stock

Zillow's Hottest Housing Markets 2022: Tricon Residential Is On Target

Tricon Residential Inc. Declares A Quarterly Dividend, Payable on or After April 15, 2022

Full year 2021 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations