Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited

OTCPK:TKPH.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$42.1b

Takeda Pharmaceutical Valuation

Is TKPH.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TKPH.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TKPH.F ($25.26) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($60.48)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TKPH.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TKPH.F?

Key metric: As TKPH.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TKPH.F. This is calculated by dividing TKPH.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TKPH.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio22.5x
EarningsJP¥290.00b
Market CapJP¥6.52t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TKPH.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TKPH.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.1x
ZTS Zoetis
32.9x9.9%US$79.7b
RPRX Royalty Pharma
10.3x6.3%US$15.6b
MRK Merck
20.7x15.6%US$252.6b
JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals
16.5x16.3%US$7.6b
TKPH.F Takeda Pharmaceutical
22.5x11.9%US$6.5t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TKPH.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.5x) compared to the peer average (20.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TKPH.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Pharmaceuticals Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NDOI Endo
0.6xn/aUS$1.87b
PROC Procaps Group
2xn/aUS$125.23m
KPRX Kiora Pharmaceuticals
1.8x-40.4%US$9.93m
EDXC Endexx
0.8xn/aUS$5.99m
TKPH.F 22.5xIndustry Avg. 20.5xNo. of Companies9PE01224364860+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TKPH.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.5x) compared to the US Pharmaceuticals industry average (19.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TKPH.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TKPH.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio22.5x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate TKPH.F's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TKPH.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$25.26
US$30.99
+22.7%
10.6%US$38.10US$27.12n/a17
Nov ’25US$27.00
US$31.91
+18.2%
10.5%US$39.41US$28.05n/a18
Oct ’25US$28.58
US$32.91
+15.1%
10.6%US$40.71US$28.98n/a18
Sep ’25US$27.55
US$32.91
+19.4%
10.6%US$40.71US$28.98n/a18
Aug ’25US$26.40
US$31.36
+18.8%
9.2%US$38.05US$28.04n/a17
Jul ’25US$26.84
US$30.03
+11.9%
10.4%US$35.44US$26.58n/a17
Jun ’25US$25.96
US$30.59
+17.8%
10.0%US$35.68US$26.76n/a18
May ’25US$26.62
US$30.87
+16.0%
10.1%US$37.46US$27.13n/a18
Apr ’25US$27.91
US$31.58
+13.1%
10.3%US$38.24US$27.69n/a18
Mar ’25US$28.83
US$31.47
+9.2%
10.2%US$38.49US$27.21n/a18
Feb ’25US$28.49
US$31.99
+12.3%
10.4%US$39.64US$28.02n/a18
Jan ’25US$28.73
US$31.81
+10.7%
10.0%US$39.36US$27.82n/a19
Dec ’24US$27.17
US$32.03
+17.9%
10.7%US$39.32US$27.80n/a19
Nov ’24US$26.45
US$32.13
+21.5%
10.7%US$38.91US$27.50US$27.0018
Oct ’24US$30.92
US$32.40
+4.8%
10.8%US$38.81US$27.44US$28.5818
Sep ’24US$30.23
US$32.97
+9.1%
11.9%US$40.36US$25.75US$27.5520
Aug ’24US$30.60
US$33.30
+8.9%
12.0%US$40.77US$26.01US$26.4020
Jul ’24US$30.94
US$32.85
+6.2%
12.4%US$39.02US$25.78US$26.8419
Jun ’24US$32.04
US$33.77
+5.4%
12.0%US$40.35US$26.66US$25.9618
May ’24US$33.00
US$35.96
+9.0%
19.3%US$58.72US$27.16US$26.6218
Apr ’24n/a
US$36.87
0%
17.1%US$52.85US$28.34US$27.9116
Mar ’24n/a
US$35.21
0%
16.5%US$51.13US$27.42US$28.8316
Feb ’24US$32.15
US$36.17
+12.5%
16.5%US$53.12US$28.49US$28.4916
Jan ’24US$31.00
US$33.42
+7.8%
16.7%US$50.36US$27.01US$28.7316
Dec ’23US$29.73
US$32.57
+9.6%
17.2%US$49.62US$26.61US$27.1716
Nov ’23US$26.22
US$30.77
+17.3%
17.2%US$46.80US$25.10US$26.4516

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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