Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited

OTCPK:TKPH.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$43.6b

Takeda Pharmaceutical Valuation

Is TKPH.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TKPH.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$66.22
Fair Value
59.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
17
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: TKPH.F ($26.75) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($66.22)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TKPH.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TKPH.F?

Key metric: As TKPH.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TKPH.F. This is calculated by dividing TKPH.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TKPH.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio31.8x
EarningsJP¥208.07b
Market CapJP¥6.61t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TKPH.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TKPH.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.3x
ZTS Zoetis
32.3x10.0%US$79.3b
RPRX Royalty Pharma
12.2x4.5%US$18.5b
JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals
15.7x12.3%US$7.3b
MRK Merck
13x8.0%US$226.8b
TKPH.F Takeda Pharmaceutical
31.8x17.9%US$6.6t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TKPH.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.8x) compared to the peer average (18.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TKPH.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Pharmaceuticals Industry?

8 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
OGN Organon
2.9x-8.3%US$3.94b
NDOI Endo
0.7xn/aUS$2.18b
PROC.F Procaps Group
2.4xn/aUS$130.88m
KPRX Kiora Pharmaceuticals
2x0.2%US$11.37m
TKPH.F 31.8xIndustry Avg. 18.7xNo. of Companies8PE01224364860+
8 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TKPH.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.8x) compared to the US Pharmaceuticals industry average (18.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TKPH.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TKPH.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio31.8x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate TKPH.F's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TKPH.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$26.75
US$31.53
+17.9%
9.4%US$38.28US$27.72n/a17
Jan ’26US$26.75
US$31.48
+17.7%
9.4%US$38.36US$27.78n/a17
Dec ’25US$25.40
US$31.13
+22.6%
11.0%US$38.19US$27.18n/a17
Nov ’25US$27.00
US$31.23
+15.7%
10.5%US$38.57US$27.46n/a18
Oct ’25US$28.58
US$32.91
+15.1%
10.6%US$40.71US$28.98n/a18
Sep ’25US$27.55
US$32.91
+19.4%
10.6%US$40.71US$28.98n/a18
Aug ’25US$26.40
US$31.36
+18.8%
9.2%US$38.05US$28.04n/a17
Jul ’25US$26.84
US$30.03
+11.9%
10.4%US$35.44US$26.58n/a17
Jun ’25US$25.96
US$30.59
+17.8%
10.0%US$35.68US$26.76n/a18
May ’25US$26.62
US$30.87
+16.0%
10.1%US$37.46US$27.13n/a18
Apr ’25US$27.91
US$31.58
+13.1%
10.3%US$38.24US$27.69n/a18
Mar ’25US$28.83
US$31.47
+9.2%
10.2%US$38.49US$27.21n/a18
Feb ’25US$28.49
US$31.99
+12.3%
10.4%US$39.64US$28.02US$25.9918
Jan ’25US$28.73
US$31.81
+10.7%
10.0%US$39.36US$27.82US$26.7519
Dec ’24US$27.17
US$32.03
+17.9%
10.7%US$39.32US$27.80US$25.4019
Nov ’24US$26.45
US$32.13
+21.5%
10.7%US$38.91US$27.50US$27.0018
Oct ’24US$30.92
US$32.40
+4.8%
10.8%US$38.81US$27.44US$28.5818
Sep ’24US$30.23
US$32.97
+9.1%
11.9%US$40.36US$25.75US$27.5520
Aug ’24US$30.60
US$33.30
+8.9%
12.0%US$40.77US$26.01US$26.4020
Jul ’24US$30.94
US$32.85
+6.2%
12.4%US$39.02US$25.78US$26.8419
Jun ’24US$32.04
US$33.77
+5.4%
12.0%US$40.35US$26.66US$25.9618
May ’24US$33.00
US$35.96
+9.0%
19.3%US$58.72US$27.16US$26.6218
Apr ’24n/a
US$36.87
0%
17.1%US$52.85US$28.34US$27.9116
Mar ’24n/a
US$35.21
0%
16.5%US$51.13US$27.42US$28.8316
Feb ’24US$32.15
US$36.17
+12.5%
16.5%US$53.12US$28.49US$28.4916
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 17 Analysts
US$30.66
Fair Value
12.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
17
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/07 03:40
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/05 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited is covered by 38 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Atsushi SekiBarclays
Koichi MameganoBofA Global Research
Hazim BahariCFRA Equity Research