Eli Lilly and Company Just Missed EPS By 31%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) missed earnings with its latest third-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$11b revenue coming in 5.6% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.07 missed the mark badly, arriving some 31% below what was expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Eli Lilly

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Eli Lilly from 28 analysts is for revenues of US$58.4b in 2025. If met, it would imply a sizeable 43% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 131% to US$21.54. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$58.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$21.46 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$1,006, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Eli Lilly at US$1,250 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$580. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Eli Lilly's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Eli Lilly's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 33% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 11% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 10% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Eli Lilly is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$1,006, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Eli Lilly analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Eli Lilly that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.