Earnings Update: Here's Why Analysts Just Lifted Their Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ:XGN) Price Target To US$14.43

It's been a sad week for Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ:XGN), who've watched their investment drop 12% to US$10.38 in the week since the company reported its quarterly result. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 95% toUS$0.31 per share. Revenues of US$17m did beat expectations by 2.0%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Exagen's eight analysts is for revenues of US$77.5m in 2026. This would reflect a sizeable 22% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 56% to US$0.38. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$77.4m and US$0.36 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Exagen after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts held their revenue numbers steady, they also administered a modest increase to per-share loss expectations.

Check out our latest analysis for Exagen

Although the analysts are now forecasting higher losses, the average price target rose 19% to 12.14286, which could indicate that these losses are expected to be "one-off", or are not anticipated to have a longer-term impact on the business. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Exagen, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$18.00 and the most bearish at US$10.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Exagen's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 17% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.5% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 21% annually. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Exagen is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Exagen's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Exagen going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Exagen that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.