Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc.

NasdaqGM:VRCA Stock Report

Market Cap: US$40.6m

Verrica Pharmaceuticals Valuation

Is VRCA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VRCA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VRCA ($0.89) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($119.58)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VRCA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VRCA?

Key metric: As VRCA is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for VRCA. This is calculated by dividing VRCA's market cap by their current revenue.
What is VRCA's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio4.4x
SalesUS$9.21m
Market CapUS$40.58m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does VRCA's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for VRCA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.3x
DARE Daré Bioscience
14.4x78.4%US$27.2m
CBST.F Cannabist Company Holdings
0.1x-0.5%US$50.6m
NTRB Nutriband
30.2xn/aUS$54.5m
MRMD MariMed
0.4x8.1%US$59.1m
VRCA Verrica Pharmaceuticals
4.4x53.1%US$40.6m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: VRCA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.4x) compared to the peer average (11.3x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does VRCA's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Pharmaceuticals Industry?

68 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
OGN Organon
0.6x-0.06%US$3.76b
PRGO Perrigo
0.8x3.4%US$3.72b
BHC Bausch Health Companies
0.3x1.5%US$3.01b
SNDL SNDL
0.8x7.2%US$525.69m
VRCA 4.4xIndustry Avg. 2.5xNo. of Companies68PS03.67.210.814.418+
68 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: VRCA is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.4x) compared to the US Pharmaceuticals industry average (2.5x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VRCA's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VRCA PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio4.4x
Fair PS Ratio2.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: VRCA is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.8x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst VRCA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$0.89
US$6.33
+611.6%
66.2%US$12.00US$2.00n/a3
Nov ’25US$1.53
US$11.75
+668.0%
12.6%US$14.00US$10.00n/a4
Oct ’25US$1.37
US$14.00
+921.9%
14.9%US$18.00US$12.00n/a6
Sep ’25US$2.35
US$14.00
+495.7%
14.9%US$18.00US$12.00n/a6
Aug ’25US$6.33
US$15.50
+144.9%
20.3%US$22.00US$12.00n/a6
Jul ’25US$7.95
US$15.50
+95.0%
20.3%US$22.00US$12.00n/a6
Jun ’25US$8.51
US$15.50
+82.1%
20.3%US$22.00US$12.00n/a6
May ’25US$6.85
US$13.67
+99.5%
32.4%US$22.00US$8.00n/a6
Apr ’25US$5.92
US$13.67
+130.9%
32.4%US$22.00US$8.00n/a6
Mar ’25US$5.55
US$13.67
+146.2%
32.4%US$22.00US$8.00n/a6
Feb ’25US$5.75
US$12.83
+123.2%
25.6%US$18.00US$8.00n/a6
Jan ’25US$7.32
US$12.83
+75.3%
25.6%US$18.00US$8.00n/a6
Dec ’24US$3.82
US$12.83
+236.0%
25.6%US$18.00US$8.00n/a6
Nov ’24US$3.65
US$12.67
+247.0%
16.9%US$15.00US$10.00US$1.536
Oct ’24US$3.89
US$12.67
+226.0%
16.9%US$15.00US$10.00US$1.376
Sep ’24US$4.63
US$12.67
+173.6%
16.9%US$15.00US$10.00US$2.356
Aug ’24US$5.61
US$12.33
+119.8%
15.3%US$15.00US$10.00US$6.336
Jul ’24US$5.77
US$12.00
+108.0%
14.9%US$15.00US$10.00US$7.955
Jun ’24US$5.70
US$12.00
+110.5%
14.9%US$15.00US$10.00US$8.515
May ’24US$6.49
US$12.00
+84.9%
14.9%US$15.00US$10.00US$6.855
Apr ’24US$6.50
US$12.00
+84.6%
14.9%US$15.00US$10.00US$5.925
Mar ’24US$7.58
US$12.50
+64.9%
13.3%US$15.00US$11.00US$5.554
Feb ’24US$4.98
US$10.00
+100.8%
39.4%US$15.00US$4.00US$5.754
Jan ’24US$2.75
US$10.00
+263.6%
39.4%US$15.00US$4.00US$7.324
Dec ’23US$3.18
US$10.00
+214.5%
39.4%US$15.00US$4.00US$3.824
Nov ’23US$2.51
US$10.00
+298.4%
39.4%US$15.00US$4.00US$3.654

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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