Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) Is Up 21.3% After Tradipitant Shows Positive Results in GLP-1 Side Effect Trial Has The Bull Case Changed?

• In November 2025, Vanda Pharmaceuticals announced positive topline results from a randomized controlled trial showing that tradipitant, its oral NK-1 receptor antagonist, significantly reduced nausea and vomiting caused by GLP-1 therapy in overweight and obese adults, without any new safety concerns.
• This outcome highlights tradipitant's potential to address a key tolerability issue in the rapidly growing market for GLP-1 based obesity and diabetes treatments.
• We'll now examine how these clinical results for tradipitant might influence expectations for Vanda Pharmaceuticals' pipeline strength and growth outlook.

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Vanda Pharmaceuticals Investment Narrative Recap

For investors in Vanda Pharmaceuticals, the core belief centers on the eventual commercial success of its late-stage pipeline, especially tradipitant, to offset ongoing losses and the impact of generic competition for HETLIOZ. The recent strong phase 2b/3 data for tradipitant significantly raises confidence in this asset's potential but does not eliminate the biggest short-term catalyst: FDA approvals and rapid uptake of new products, while the main risk remains persistent net losses and cash burn as expenses rise ahead of meaningful revenue ramp-up.

The most relevant recent company announcement is Vanda’s October 2025 framework agreement with the FDA, which set an expedited review path for tradipitant. This is closely connected to the positive topline trial data, as regulatory clarity combined with strong efficacy and safety results could accelerate progress toward key approvals that are central to the company’s growth story.

However, investors should also consider that, despite these advances, Vanda’s financials remain under pressure from rising costs and ongoing net losses, a reality that …

Read the full narrative on Vanda Pharmaceuticals (it's free!)

Vanda Pharmaceuticals is projected to reach $432.2 million in revenue and $7.7 million in earnings by 2028. This scenario assumes a 28.6% annual revenue growth rate and a $74.6 million increase in earnings from the current level of -$66.9 million.

Uncover how Vanda Pharmaceuticals' forecasts yield a $12.67 fair value, a 137% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members estimate Vanda’s fair value between US$5 and US$49.63 across 9 separate analyses. With opinions diverging this widely, keep in mind that persistent net losses and cash burn remain major themes for the company’s near-term performance.

Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Vanda Pharmaceuticals - why the stock might be worth 7% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Vanda Pharmaceuticals Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Vanda Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Vanda Pharmaceuticals research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Vanda Pharmaceuticals' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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