Valuation Check: How Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) Stacks Up After Cutting 2025 Revenue Guidance Ahead of Q3 Results

Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) revised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance, lowering the upper end of expectations to $230 million from $250 million just ahead of its upcoming third-quarter earnings release.

See our latest analysis for Vanda Pharmaceuticals.

Investors have taken note of Vanda Pharmaceuticals’ trimmed revenue outlook, especially with third-quarter results around the corner. The share price saw a sharp 20.91% slide over the last week, reflecting shifting sentiment after the guidance cut. Meanwhile, a 3.82% gain over the last 90 days hints at volatility as the market reassesses future prospects. With a 1-year total shareholder return of -6.65% and a multi-year trend of underperformance, momentum remains muted and caution is in the air.

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With shares sitting close to a 52-week low and expectations now reset, investors may wonder whether Vanda Pharmaceuticals is an undervalued opportunity ahead of its earnings or if the market is accurately reflecting the company’s growth prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: 65.7% Undervalued

Vanda Pharmaceuticals’ most-followed valuation narrative places its fair value far above the last closing price, suggesting major upside if the assumed growth trajectory is realized. With so much potential factored into the price target, let’s look at a key driver that could change the current story.

Recent commercial launches and ongoing expansion of the sales force for Fanapt in bipolar I disorder and PONVORY in multiple sclerosis have already driven prescription and revenue growth, and are positioned to capture increasing demand for psychiatric and neurological treatments globally, supporting sustained top-line growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what fuels this bold fair value? The narrative’s calculations rely on ambitious growth trajectories for both revenue and profit margins, which exceed most peers. Interested in which blockbuster pipeline assumptions and industry trends justify these elevated future multiples? See exactly what underpins this target and why analysts believe there is so much headroom still to capture.

Result: Fair Value of $12.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, mounting competition for legacy drugs and rising expenses could derail expected growth. This makes any turnaround far from guaranteed for Vanda Pharmaceuticals.

Find out about the key risks to this Vanda Pharmaceuticals narrative.

Build Your Own Vanda Pharmaceuticals Narrative

If you see Vanda Pharmaceuticals differently or want to draw your own conclusions, you can explore the fundamentals and share your perspective in just a few minutes, so go ahead and Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Vanda Pharmaceuticals.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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