A Look at Tilray Brands (NasdaqGS:TLRY) Valuation After Strong Results and Global Expansion Initiatives

Tilray Brands (NasdaqGS:TLRY) has caught investors’ attention following better-than-anticipated financial results, a positive outlook for 2026, and new international expansion moves including a joint venture for medical cannabis in Panama.

See our latest analysis for Tilray Brands.

Shares of Tilray Brands have rebounded sharply in recent months, with a 34.8% 90-day share price return reflecting renewed optimism after upbeat earnings and aggressive international moves, such as expanding medical cannabis access in Panama. While momentum has picked up in the short run, the longer-term total shareholder return remains deeply negative. This reminds investors that sustained growth will be key to a true turnaround.

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With Tilray’s shares rallying on upbeat results and fresh strategic moves, the big question now is whether these gains mean the stock remains undervalued or if the market is already factoring in all the future growth ahead.

Most Popular Narrative: 30.5% Undervalued

The latest fair value estimate places Tilray Brands’ shares around $1.78, with the market last closing at $1.24. This sharp difference has analysts projecting major upside if the company's roadmap plays out. This sets the stage for a bold narrative on Tilray’s future.

Tilray's international cannabis business is achieving rapid organic growth, with European cannabis revenue up 112% year-over-year (excluding Australia) and significant share gains in Germany due to regulatory tailwinds, broader medical adoption, and expanding legalization. This supports a long runway for top-line revenue acceleration as global cannabis markets open.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious to discover what’s truly fueling this ambitious price target? The real story is built on high-speed international expansion and a dramatically improved margin profile. Analysts are betting on a step-change in earnings quality, but the exact magnitude of these future financial projections may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $1.78 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, progress on U.S. cannabis regulations remains slow, and persistent price competition in Canada could challenge Tilray’s turnaround story if these issues persist.

Find out about the key risks to this Tilray Brands narrative.

Another View: What Does Our DCF Model Suggest?

While analysts point to major upside based on future earnings and profit margin improvements, our SWS DCF model tells a more cautious story. According to this valuation method, Tilray trades above its estimated fair value of $1.12 per share, which suggests the recent rally may already reflect much of the anticipated growth. Is the market too optimistic, or is the fair value set to rise with future catalysts?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Tilray Brands for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 876 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Tilray Brands Narrative

Want to reach your own conclusions or dig deeper into the numbers? Craft your personal view using our tools. It takes less than three minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Tilray Brands research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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