Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On SNDL Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SNDL) Third-Quarter Report

SNDL Inc. (NASDAQ:SNDL) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.7% to US$2.06 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. Revenues of CA$238m beat expectations by a respectable 2.2%, although statutory losses per share increased. SNDL lost CA$0.07, which was 40% more than what the analysts had included in their models. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for SNDL

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for SNDL from two analysts is for revenues of CA$955.1m in 2025. If met, it would imply a modest 4.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share statutory losses are expected to explode, reaching CA$0.05 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CA$965.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.01 in 2025. So despite reconfirming their revenue estimates, the analysts are now forecasting a loss instead of a profit, which looks like a definite drop in sentiment following the latest results.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$3.63, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that SNDL's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 57% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 10% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that SNDL is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest low-light for us was that the forecasts for SNDL dropped from profits to a loss next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$3.63, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.