Stock Analysis

We're Not So Sure You Should Rely on SIGA Technologies' (NASDAQ:SIGA) Statutory Earnings

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NasdaqGM:SIGA
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It might be old fashioned, but we really like to invest in companies that make a profit, each and every year. Having said that, sometimes statutory profit levels are not a good guide to ongoing profitability, because some short term one-off factor has impacted profit levels. This article will consider whether SIGA Technologies' (NASDAQ:SIGA) statutory profits are a good guide to its underlying earnings.

We like the fact that SIGA Technologies made a profit of US$31.7m on its revenue of US$91.5m, in the last year. The chart below shows that revenue has improved over the last three years, and, even better, the company has moved from unprofitable to profitable.

View our latest analysis for SIGA Technologies

earnings-and-revenue-history
NasdaqGM:SIGA Earnings and Revenue History February 2nd 2021

Of course, it is only sensible to look beyond the statutory profits and question how well those numbers represent the sustainable earnings power of the business. As a result, we think it's well worth considering what SIGA Technologies' cashflow (when compared to its earnings) can tell us about the nature of its statutory profit. Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of SIGA Technologies.

Examining Cashflow Against SIGA Technologies' Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Over the twelve months to September 2020, SIGA Technologies recorded an accrual ratio of 0.30. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit, suggesting we might want to think twice before putting a lot of weight on the latter. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of US$11m, which is significantly less than its profit of US$31.7m. Given that SIGA Technologies had negative free cash flow in the prior corresponding period, the trailing twelve month resul of US$11m would seem to be a step in the right direction.

Our Take On SIGA Technologies' Profit Performance

SIGA Technologies' accrual ratio for the last twelve months signifies cash conversion is less than ideal, which is a negative when it comes to our view of its earnings. Because of this, we think that it may be that SIGA Technologies' statutory profits are better than its underlying earnings power. Sadly, its EPS was down over the last twelve months. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. Our analysis shows 2 warning signs for SIGA Technologies (1 is significant!) and we strongly recommend you look at these before investing.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of SIGA Technologies' profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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What are the risks and opportunities for SIGA Technologies?

SIGA Technologies, Inc., a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company, focuses on the health security and infectious disease markets in the United States.

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Rewards

  • Trading at 81.7% below our estimate of its fair value

  • Earnings grew by 557.9% over the past year

Risks

  • Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 20.3% per year for the next 3 years

  • High level of non-cash earnings

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