SIGA Technologies (SIGA) Is Down 21.0% After TPOXX Sales Drop and Third-Quarter Net Loss - Has The Bull Case Changed?

• SIGA Technologies reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results this week, revealing a drop in quarterly revenue to US$2.62 million and a net loss of US$6.37 million compared to a profit in the same period last year.
• Despite strong nine-month performance, quarterly sales of its main antiviral treatment, TPOXX, declined sharply, increasing focus on the company’s reliance on government procurement and international regulatory progress.
• We’ll consider how the sharp third-quarter sales drop and net loss affect SIGA’s investment narrative amid ongoing contract discussions.

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What Is SIGA Technologies' Investment Narrative?

For anyone considering SIGA Technologies, the core story hinges on the company's ability to secure recurring government contracts and push its TPOXX antiviral franchise into new markets. The sharp Q3 revenue drop and net loss, following an exceptional nine-month performance, put the spotlight directly on volatility in procurement cycles, especially from US agencies and emerging regulatory hurdles abroad. With SIGA’s share price down over 20% since the results, it’s clear the market now sees increased risk around contract timing and revenue consistency. While ongoing engagements with the US government and new international approvals are positives, the latest quarter softens confidence around short-term sales catalysts and casts contract risk into sharper relief. How well SIGA can convert its strong pipeline and relationships into tangible sales will define its near-term investment narrative.

But if government contract delays persist, investors could be in for more surprises. Despite retreating, SIGA Technologies' shares might still be trading above their fair value and there could be some more downside. Discover how much.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Fourteen opinions from the Simply Wall St Community put SIGA’s fair value anywhere between US$5.20 and a very large US$99.60 per share. With this wide spread, opinions on SIGA’s upside are sharply divided. The recent swing in quarterly results shows why contract certainty remains a central issue for future performance.

Explore 14 other fair value estimates on SIGA Technologies - why the stock might be worth 20% less than the current price!

Build Your Own SIGA Technologies Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your SIGA Technologies research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free SIGA Technologies research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate SIGA Technologies' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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