Analysts Just Slashed Their REGENXBIO Inc. (NASDAQ:RGNX) EPS Numbers

Today is shaping up negative for REGENXBIO Inc. (NASDAQ:RGNX) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting analysts have soured majorly on the business. Bidders are definitely seeing a different story, with the stock price of US$24.00 reflecting a 21% rise in the past week. It will be interesting to see if the downgrade has an impact on buying demand for the company's shares.

After the downgrade, the ten analysts covering REGENXBIO are now predicting revenues of US$140m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a substantial 55% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 31% to US$4.11 per share. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$160m and losses of US$2.93 per share in 2024. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for REGENXBIO

The consensus price target lifted 7.3% to US$38.55, clearly signalling that the weaker revenue and EPS outlook are not expected to weigh on the stock over the longer term.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that REGENXBIO's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 55% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 16% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect REGENXBIO to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. The rising price target is a puzzle, but still - with a serious cut to this year's outlook, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were a bit wary of REGENXBIO.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple REGENXBIO analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.