AVITA Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ:RCEL) Just Reported Third-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

AVITA Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ:RCEL) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at US$17m, but statutory earnings fell catastrophically short, with a loss of US$0.47 some 48% larger than what the analysts had predicted. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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After the latest results, the ten analysts covering AVITA Medical are now predicting revenues of US$97.6m in 2026. If met, this would reflect a huge 35% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 68% to US$0.51. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$99.7m and US$0.60 per share in losses. Although the revenue estimates have fallen somewhat, AVITA Medical'sfuture looks a little different to the past, with a notable improvement in the loss per share forecasts in particular.

See our latest analysis for AVITA Medical

The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$7.32, implying that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite adjustments to both revenue and earnings estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AVITA Medical at US$14.07 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$3.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 27% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 26% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 21% annually. So it's pretty clear that AVITA Medical is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$7.32, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on AVITA Medical. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple AVITA Medical analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for AVITA Medical (3 are a bit concerning) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.