Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE): Exploring Valuation Gaps and Analyst Targets

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) shares have moved in both directions recently, with a dip of about 1% today and roughly 11% over the past week. Investors appear to be reevaluating the company’s current strategy and long-term growth prospects.

See our latest analysis for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical.

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical’s share price has struggled to regain momentum this year, with the 1-year total shareholder return down nearly 39%. Despite a modest rebound over the past 90 days, recent selling suggests investors are weighing uncertainty against the long-term growth story.

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With Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical shares lagging despite significant analyst upside targets, the real question emerges: Is the market overlooking its future potential, or has every catalyst already been accounted for in the current price?

Most Popular Narrative: 63.6% Undervalued

With a fair value set at $84.10 and shares last closing at $30.63, the latest narrative signals a significant disconnect between analyst valuation and the current market price. Strong upward revisions in profit margins and robust revenue growth forecasts have dramatically shifted the long-term outlook.

"Ultragenyx's clinical pipeline is advancing with five Phase III programs (including UX143 and GTX-102), multiple BLA submissions expected in the coming quarters, and near-term Phase III data readouts (notably for UX143 in OI by year-end and GTX-102 in Angelman syndrome in 2026) serving as upcoming value inflection points. These developments can diversify and significantly accelerate the company's revenue base."

Read the complete narrative.

Want the inside story behind this valuation? The narrative hinges on forecasts about explosive top-line growth, margin expansion, and a future profit multiple rarely seen outside the hottest sectors. Curious which high-conviction projections fuel this number? Unlock the full narrative to see the bold calculations and assumptions setting this target.

Result: Fair Value of $84.10 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing operating losses and setbacks in regulatory approvals could quickly shift sentiment. This keeps Ultragenyx’s outlook subject to significant uncertainty.

Find out about the key risks to this Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical narrative.

Another View: Ratio-Based Valuation Raises Questions

Taking a look through a different lens, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 4.7x, which is much lower than its US Biotech peers at 11.2x. This suggests relative value. However, compared to its fair ratio of 2.2x, it still looks expensive. Does the market see more risk here, or is opportunity knocking for patient investors?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Narrative

If you want to challenge this perspective or dig deeper into the numbers, you can craft your own Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical narrative in just minutes: Do it your way

A great starting point for your Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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