Natera, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTRA) Released Earnings Last Week And Analysts Lifted Their Price Target To US$158

Natera, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTRA) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. The results were impressive, with revenues of US$440m exceeding analyst forecasts by 22%, and statutory losses of US$0.26 were likewise much smaller than the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Natera

Following the latest results, Natera's 18 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.79b in 2025. This would be a notable 17% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 20% to US$1.30. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$1.71b and US$1.21 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Natera after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a modest increase to per-share loss expectations.

It will come as a surprise to learn that the consensus price target rose 18% to US$158, with the analysts clearly more interested in growing revenue, even as losses intensify. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Natera analyst has a price target of US$185 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$37.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Natera's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 13% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 32% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 22% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Natera is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Natera. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Natera. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Natera going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Natera that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.