Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

There's been a notable change in appetite for Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:NBIX) shares in the week since its annual report, with the stock down 19% to US$123. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of US$2.4b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 18% to hit US$3.29 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Neurocrine Biosciences

Following the latest results, Neurocrine Biosciences' 17 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$2.69b in 2025. This would be a meaningful 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 43% to US$4.83. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.79b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.10 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$170, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Neurocrine Biosciences' valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Neurocrine Biosciences, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$192 and the most bearish at US$140 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Neurocrine Biosciences' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 14% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 21% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 21% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Neurocrine Biosciences.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$170, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Neurocrine Biosciences. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Neurocrine Biosciences going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Neurocrine Biosciences you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.