Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) Just Released Its Yearly Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) just released its latest annual results and things are looking bullish. Moderna beat expectations with revenues of US$6.8b arriving 5.1% ahead of forecasts. The company also reported a statutory loss of US$12.33, 8.9% smaller than was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Moderna

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 22 analysts covering Moderna is for revenues of US$4.26b in 2024. This implies a stressful 38% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 42% to US$7.11. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$4.40b and US$6.43 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Moderna after this update; revenues were downgraded and per-share losses expected to increase.

The average price target was broadly unchanged at US$134, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Moderna, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$310 and the most bearish at US$60.00 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 38% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 49% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 17% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Moderna's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Moderna. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Moderna. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Moderna analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Moderna you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.