Earnings Miss: MannKind Corporation Missed EPS By 5.9% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.8% to US$4.56 in the past week. It was a pretty mixed result, with revenues beating expectations to hit US$78m. Statutory earnings fell 5.9% short of analyst forecasts, reaching US$0.04 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from MannKind's seven analysts is for revenues of US$316.3m in 2025. This reflects a credible 6.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 82% to US$0.18. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$317.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.18 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for MannKind

The consensus price target rose 11% to US$10.29despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of MannKind's earnings by assigning a price premium. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values MannKind at US$12.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$9.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that MannKind's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 8.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 37% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than MannKind.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that MannKind's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on MannKind. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for MannKind going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - MannKind has 3 warning signs (and 2 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.