Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

NasdaqGS:MDGL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$6.8b

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Valuation

Is MDGL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MDGL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MDGL ($311.62) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($1784.84)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MDGL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MDGL?

Key metric: As MDGL barely has revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for MDGL. This is calculated by dividing MDGL's market cap by their current book value.
What is MDGL's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio8.7x
BookUS$777.16m
Market CapUS$6.83b

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does MDGL's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for MDGL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.1x
KRYS Krystal Biotech
5.2x41.2%US$4.6b
IOVA Iovance Biotherapeutics
2.8x67.1%US$2.2b
ACLX Arcellx
8.8x-8.8%US$4.3b
TGTX TG Therapeutics
23.5x57.0%US$4.7b
MDGL Madrigal Pharmaceuticals
8.7x73.2%US$6.8b

Price-To-Book vs Peers: MDGL is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (8.7x) compared to the peer average (10.1x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does MDGL's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?

63 CompaniesPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GRAL GRAIL
0.2x35.7%US$658.58m
AMRN Amarin
0.3x-7.9%US$184.28m
LYEL Lyell Immunopharma
0.3x-14.9%US$181.49m
NKTX Nkarta
0.4x-11.5%US$170.07m
MDGL 8.7xIndustry Avg. 1.8xNo. of Companies79PB01.63.24.86.48+
63 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: MDGL is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (8.7x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (1.7x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MDGL's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MDGL PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio8.7x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate MDGL's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MDGL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$311.62
US$373.00
+19.7%
22.2%US$530.00US$155.00n/a15
Dec ’25US$328.19
US$372.20
+13.4%
22.1%US$530.00US$155.00n/a15
Nov ’25US$319.58
US$366.07
+14.5%
23.8%US$530.00US$155.00n/a15
Oct ’25US$209.33
US$362.53
+73.2%
23.1%US$511.00US$150.00n/a15
Sep ’25US$247.13
US$362.53
+46.7%
23.1%US$511.00US$150.00n/a15
Aug ’25US$278.48
US$365.33
+31.2%
22.6%US$507.00US$150.00n/a15
Jul ’25US$279.31
US$365.07
+30.7%
22.6%US$507.00US$150.00n/a15
Jun ’25US$236.16
US$363.86
+54.1%
23.5%US$507.00US$150.00n/a14
May ’25US$210.59
US$377.07
+79.1%
23.0%US$565.00US$150.00n/a14
Apr ’25US$255.74
US$394.54
+54.3%
15.7%US$565.00US$270.00n/a13
Mar ’25US$251.63
US$318.92
+26.7%
18.0%US$407.00US$155.00n/a12
Feb ’25US$222.23
US$321.08
+44.5%
14.0%US$383.00US$204.00n/a12
Jan ’25US$231.38
US$315.92
+36.5%
17.9%US$383.00US$154.00n/a12
Dec ’24US$213.12
US$315.92
+48.2%
17.9%US$383.00US$154.00US$328.1912
Nov ’24US$136.49
US$318.25
+133.2%
21.3%US$409.00US$154.00US$319.5812
Oct ’24US$146.04
US$326.83
+123.8%
17.9%US$410.00US$224.00US$209.3312
Sep ’24US$185.14
US$334.64
+80.7%
15.8%US$409.00US$224.00US$247.1311
Aug ’24US$202.32
US$340.82
+68.5%
15.0%US$416.00US$224.00US$278.4811
Jul ’24US$231.00
US$340.82
+47.5%
15.0%US$416.00US$224.00US$279.3111
Jun ’24US$269.04
US$331.17
+23.1%
17.7%US$416.00US$224.00US$236.1612
May ’24US$309.38
US$315.83
+2.1%
18.3%US$414.00US$194.00US$210.5912
Apr ’24US$242.26
US$313.17
+29.3%
17.2%US$390.00US$194.00US$255.7412
Mar ’24US$279.19
US$313.17
+12.2%
17.2%US$390.00US$194.00US$251.6312
Feb ’24US$289.07
US$303.00
+4.8%
18.4%US$390.00US$194.00US$222.2312
Jan ’24US$290.25
US$289.75
-0.2%
16.6%US$375.00US$194.00US$231.3812
Dec ’23US$73.12
US$152.58
+108.7%
23.6%US$203.00US$75.00US$213.1212

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/30 01:57
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is covered by 22 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Matthew LuchiniBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Jason ZemanskyBofA Global Research
Alexandria HammondBofA Global Research