Investors in Inhibrx, Inc. (NASDAQ:INBX) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.8% to close at US$16.71 following the release of its first-quarter results. Revenues came in at US$889k, in line with forecasts and the company reported a statutory loss of US$0.51 per share, roughly in line with expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Inhibrx after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the two analysts covering Inhibrx provided consensus estimates of US$3.30m revenue in 2021, which would reflect a disturbing 74% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 5.9% to US$2.35 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.70m and losses of US$2.64 per share in 2021. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated losses the business will incur.
The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$40.50, implying that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite adjustments to both revenue and earnings estimates.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 84% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2021. That is a notable change from historical growth of 90% over the last year. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 14% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Inhibrx is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have analyst estimates for Inhibrx going out as far as 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Inhibrx is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is concerning...
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