Investors in Icosavax (NASDAQ:ICVX) from a year ago are still down 17%, even after 13% gain this past week

Icosavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:ICVX) shareholders will doubtless be very grateful to see the share price up 234% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last year have been less than pleasing. The cold reality is that the stock has dropped 17% in one year, under-performing the market.

While the stock has risen 13% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.

Check out our latest analysis for Icosavax

With just US$2,652,000 worth of revenue in twelve months, we don't think the market considers Icosavax to have proven its business plan. We can't help wondering why it's publicly listed so early in its journey. Are venture capitalists not interested? So it seems that the investors focused more on what could be, than paying attention to the current revenues (or lack thereof). For example, they may be hoping that Icosavax comes up with a great new product, before it runs out of money.

We think companies that have neither significant revenues nor profits are pretty high risk. You should be aware that there is always a chance that this sort of company will need to issue more shares to raise money to continue pursuing its business plan. While some such companies do very well over the long term, others become hyped up by promoters before eventually falling back down to earth, and going bankrupt (or being recapitalized).

When it last reported its balance sheet in September 2022, Icosavax had cash in excess of all liabilities of US$203m. That's not too bad but management may have to think about raising capital or taking on debt, unless the company is close to breaking even. With the share price down 17% in the last year , it seems likely that the need for cash is weighing on investors' minds. You can see in the image below, how Icosavax's cash levels have changed over time (click to see the values).

Of course, the truth is that it is hard to value companies without much revenue or profit. Would it bother you if insiders were selling the stock? It would bother me, that's for sure. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.

A Different Perspective

Icosavax shareholders are down 17% for the year, even worse than the market loss of 7.7%. That's disappointing, but it's worth keeping in mind that the market-wide selling wouldn't have helped. Putting aside the last twelve months, it's good to see the share price has rebounded by 234%, in the last ninety days. Let's just hope this isn't the widely-feared 'dead cat bounce' (which would indicate further declines to come). While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 5 warning signs for Icosavax (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.