Harmony Biosciences (HRMY): Assessing Valuation After ZYN002 Phase 3 Setback in Fragile X Syndrome Study

Harmony Biosciences Holdings (HRMY) recently reported that its pivotal Phase 3 RECONNECT study of ZYN002 in Fragile X syndrome did not hit the main efficacy target. This was primarily because of an unexpectedly high placebo response.

See our latest analysis for Harmony Biosciences Holdings.

Following the disappointing RECONNECT study results, Harmony Biosciences Holdings shares have reflected fading momentum. Its 1-year total shareholder return stands at -21%, and the YTD share price return is also notably negative. Investors have grown more cautious as drug development risks have come into sharper focus, particularly after such a setback for a key pipeline candidate.

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With shares down sharply and a substantial discount to analyst price targets, is the market overlooking Harmony’s prospects, or is future growth already reflected in the current valuation? Could this be a buying opportunity?

Most Popular Narrative: 38.8% Undervalued

With Harmony Biosciences Holdings last closing at $27.28, the most widely followed narrative estimates fair value up at $44.55. This sizable gap creates an intriguing debate over what could unlock the next move for the stock.

Strong commercial execution and strategic capital management enable continued R&D investment, life cycle extension, and resilience against future competition.

Read the complete narrative.

What is fueling this bullish projection? There is a hidden formula behind the narrative’s fair value: bold growth rates for both revenue and earnings, plus a future profit multiple that shapes the entire outlook. Curious about the specific assumptions in this call? Only the full narrative has the answers.

Result: Fair Value of $44.55 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, heavy reliance on Wakix and limited late-stage pipeline diversification mean that unexpected competition or regulatory setbacks could quickly erode Harmony’s growth outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Harmony Biosciences Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own Harmony Biosciences Holdings Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, it’s fast and easy to build your own view in just minutes with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Harmony Biosciences Holdings.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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