Earnings Update: Exscientia plc (NASDAQ:EXAI) Just Reported Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Exscientia plc (NASDAQ:EXAI) just released its latest third-quarter results and things are looking bullish. Revenue crushed expectations at UK£8.9m, beating expectations by 97%. Exscientia reported a statutory loss of UK£0.25 per share, which - although not amazing - was much smaller than the analysts predicted. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Exscientia

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Exscientia's four analysts is for revenues of UK£60.3m in 2024. This reflects a substantial 146% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are predicted to creep up to UK£1.21. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of UK£60.4m and UK£1.23 per share in losses.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$9.47, suggesting that the business - losses and all - is executing in line with estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Exscientia analyst has a price target of US$10.95 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$6.98. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Exscientia's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Exscientia's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 106% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 22% p.a. over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 15% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Exscientia to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$9.47, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Exscientia going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Exscientia is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.