Dynavax Technologies Corporation Reported A Surprise Loss, And Analysts Have Updated Their Forecasts

There's been a notable change in appetite for Dynavax Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ:DVAX) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 15% to US$9.72. Revenues came in at US$68m, in line with estimates, while Dynavax Technologies reported a statutory loss of US$0.77 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Dynavax Technologies' five analysts is for revenues of US$332.7m in 2025. This reflects a solid 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Dynavax Technologies forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.33 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$326.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.34 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Dynavax Technologies

The consensus price target held steady at US$24.03, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Dynavax Technologies at US$31.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$11.10. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Dynavax Technologies' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Dynavax Technologies'historical trends, as the 18% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 16% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 17% per year. It's clear that while Dynavax Technologies' revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Dynavax Technologies going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see our analysis of Dynavax Technologies' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.