Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) Rises 14.1% After Q3 Profit Surge and Raised Revenue Outlook

• On November 6, 2025, Collegium Pharmaceutical reported its third quarter results, delivering a significant year-over-year increase in net income to US$31.51 million and raising its full-year 2025 net product revenue guidance to a range of US$775–785 million.
• While third quarter earnings outpaced the prior year substantially, the company's net income for the first nine months declined compared to the same period in 2024, highlighting variability across reporting periods.
• We'll explore how Collegium's raised full-year revenue guidance may influence the company's evolving investment narrative.

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Collegium Pharmaceutical Investment Narrative Recap

To own Collegium Pharmaceutical, investors must have confidence in the company’s ability to sustain growth from its pain management portfolio while navigating risks like looming patent expirations and regulatory pressures. The recent raise in full-year revenue guidance, following a strong third quarter, reinforces the short-term catalyst of expanding specialty therapies but does not meaningfully lessen the biggest concern about generic competition in the years ahead.

Among recent announcements, the FDA’s grant of pediatric exclusivity for Nucynta in June 2024 stands out. This move extends market protection for a key product until early 2027, providing a buffer for revenue sustainability and slightly easing the timeline concerns around imminent generic entries, which remains central to the company's risk profile and investor focus.

However, despite the improving short-term outlook, investors should be aware that the longer-term competitive risk for Collegium is far from resolved...

Read the full narrative on Collegium Pharmaceutical (it's free!)

Collegium Pharmaceutical's narrative projects $695.3 million revenue and $131.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires a 0.6% yearly revenue decline and a $95.1 million earnings increase from $36.3 million.

Uncover how Collegium Pharmaceutical's forecasts yield a $44.60 fair value, a 10% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members shared three fair value estimates for Collegium Pharmaceutical ranging from US$44.60 to US$150.82 per share. While some believe extended product exclusivity boosts future returns, remember upcoming patent expiries could challenge these expectations and merit closer analysis.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Collegium Pharmaceutical - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Collegium Pharmaceutical Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Collegium Pharmaceutical research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Collegium Pharmaceutical research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Collegium Pharmaceutical's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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