Earnings Beat: BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Last week saw the newest third-quarter earnings release from BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:BCRX), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$159m, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 12%, coming in at US$0.06 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

Following the latest results, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$664.2m in 2026. This would be a solid 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with BioCryst Pharmaceuticals forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.35 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$661.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.31 in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a nice increase in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

View our latest analysis for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$19.73, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$30.00 and the most bearish at US$9.00 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 8.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 39% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 21% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than BioCryst Pharmaceuticals.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards BioCryst Pharmaceuticals following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$19.73, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals you should know about.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.