Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (NasdaqGM:AUPH): Valuation Insights Following Strong Q3 Results and Raised 2025 Guidance

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) just delivered a strong show for investors with better-than-expected third quarter results and an updated outlook for 2025. The company raised both its revenue and net product sales guidance, which suggests growing confidence in its business trajectory.

See our latest analysis for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals.

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals’ strong financial report and higher guidance have clearly energized the stock, with a 13% seven-day share price return and an impressive 32% gain over the past month. Momentum has been building for most of 2025, as the year-to-date share price is up nearly 70% and total shareholder return has reached over 75% in the last twelve months.

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The key question now is whether Aurinia’s strong results and bullish guidance leave more room for upside, or if the current rally fully reflects its potential. Investors are left wondering if there is still a buying opportunity, or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 15% Overvalued

With the most widely followed narrative raising its fair value estimate to $13.00, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals’ closing price of $14.89 now stands noticeably above it. This gap keeps debates about future upside or downside simmering.

Upward revisions of fair value and price targets reflect increased confidence in the company’s ability to execute and deliver shareholder value. Improved operating leverage suggests greater efficiency and scalability within the company's business model.

Read the complete narrative.

Wondering what sparks this new “overvalued” label? This narrative hinges on higher growth projections, improved margins, and a recalculation of stakes as optimism meets caution. The fair value rests on bold assumptions, including a mix of forecasts, shifting market dynamics, and recalibrated profit formulas. Ready to uncover the numbers and tensions fueling this debate?

Result: Fair Value of $13 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

Still, heavy reliance on Lupkynis and rising global drug pricing pressures could quickly turn sentiment. This makes ongoing vigilance essential for investors.

Find out about the key risks to this Aurinia Pharmaceuticals narrative.

Another View: SWS DCF Model Finds Undervaluation

While analysts using earnings multiples see Aurinia Pharmaceuticals as richly valued, our SWS DCF model presents a different perspective. According to this cash flow-based method, the stock trades 57.2% below its estimated fair value. This raises questions about whether the market is overlooking deeper growth potential or overestimating risks. Which model will prove more accurate as events unfold?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Aurinia Pharmaceuticals for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 865 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers your way, it takes less than three minutes to craft your own perspective. Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Aurinia Pharmaceuticals.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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