A Look at Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) Valuation Following Q3 Profit and New Vafseo Clinical Data

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) just posted third quarter 2025 earnings, swinging from a net loss to net profit as a result of much higher revenue. Investors are watching closely because this marks a financial turnaround for the company.

See our latest analysis for Akebia Therapeutics.

Akebia’s share price has taken a hit recently. Even after swinging to profit this quarter, it fell 18% in the past day and is down 39% over the last month as investors digested mixed clinical trial updates and regulatory delays. Despite the near-term pressure, Akebia’s three-year total shareholder return stands out at over 500%, highlighting the big gains that early investors have seen, even as momentum has faded in 2025.

If you’re wondering what other healthcare companies are making headlines and capturing investor attention, take the next step with our See the full list for free.

With shares still trading far below analyst targets after this dramatic profit swing, the question remains: is Akebia undervalued at these levels, or has the market already priced in the company's future growth prospects?

Most Popular Narrative: 75.4% Undervalued

Shareholders have watched Akebia Therapeutics trade far below its fair value estimate, with the narrative placing fair value at $6.80 compared to the current price of $1.67. This sizable gap has made the story around Akebia’s future growth and valuation especially contentious following a dramatic financial turnaround.

"Rapid expansion of Vafseo prescribing access from 40,000 dialysis patients in early 2025 to a projected 275,000+ by late Q4 through contracts with major dialysis networks (DCI, IRC, DaVita) positions Akebia to significantly increase near-term and long-term revenue and market share as the number of treated CKD anemia patients grows in line with an aging population and broader healthcare access."

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what’s pushing Akebia’s valuation above the market’s current price? The real story is in the aggressive growth assumptions and bold profit margin forecasts that analysts are baking in. See which surprising financial leaps must happen for this narrative to play out.

Result: Fair Value of $6.80 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sudden generic competition for Auryxia or regulatory setbacks for Vafseo could quickly undermine Akebia’s bullish outlook and put pressure on its future growth.

Find out about the key risks to this Akebia Therapeutics narrative.

Build Your Own Akebia Therapeutics Narrative

If you want to challenge these assumptions or take a closer look yourself, you can build your own perspective on Akebia in just minutes, Do it your way

A great starting point for your Akebia Therapeutics research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

The smartest investors always keep an eye on tomorrow’s potential winners. Open your next opportunity. These three handpicked trends could reinvent your watchlist and help you spot untapped gains before others do.

• Unlock the potential of fast-growing companies shaking up healthcare by tapping into these 32 healthcare AI stocks with powerful AI-driven solutions and robust fundamentals.
• Boost your passive income by targeting real opportunities among these 16 dividend stocks with yields > 3% offering yields above 3% and steady payouts.
• Get ahead of the pack by spotting early-stage value in these 3578 penny stocks with strong financials that combine strong balance sheets and surprising momentum.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com